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The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty which extends the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that commits State Parties to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, based on the premise that (a) global warming exists and (b) human-made CO₂ emissions have caused it. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. There are currently 192 parties (Canada withdrew effective December 2012)<ref name=UNlist/> to the Protocol.

The Kyoto Protocol implemented the objective of the UNFCCC to fight global warming by reducing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to "a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" (Art. 2). The Protocol is based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities: it puts the obligation to reduce current emissions on developed countries on the basis that they are historically responsible for the current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The Protocol's first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. A second commitment period was agreed on in 2012, known as the Doha Amendment to the protocol, in which 37 countries have binding targets: Australia, the European Union (and its 28 member states), Belarus, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland, and Ukraine. Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine have stated that they may withdraw from the Protocol or not put into legal force the Amendment with second round targets.<ref name="figueres doha summary">Template:Citation</ref> Japan, New Zealand and Russia have participated in Kyoto's first-round but have not taken on new targets in the second commitment period. Other developed countries without second-round targets are Canada (which withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in 2012) and the United States (which has not ratified the Protocol). As of July 2016, 66<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> states have accepted the Doha Amendment, while entry into force requires the acceptances of 144 states. Of the 37 countries with binding commitments, 7 have ratified.

Negotiations were held in the framework of the yearly UNFCCC Climate Change Conferences on measures to be taken after the second commitment period ends in 2020. This resulted in the 2015 adoption of the Paris Agreement, which is a separate instrument under the UNFCCC rather than an amendment of the Kyoto protocol.

Background

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The view that human activities are likely responsible for most of the observed increase in global mean temperature ("global warming") since the mid-20th century is an accurate reflection of current scientific thinking.<ref> Template:Cite book </ref><ref name="2008 us nrc Understanding and Responding to Climate Change"> Template:Cite book </ref> Human-induced warming of the climate is expected to continue throughout the 21st century and beyond.<ref name="2008 us nrc Understanding and Responding to Climate Change"/>

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) have produced a range of projections of what the future increase in global mean temperature might be.<ref name="2007 ipcc global warming projections"> Template:Cite book </ref> The IPCC's projections are "baseline" projections, meaning that they assume no future efforts are made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The IPCC projections cover the time period from the beginning of the 21st century to the end of the 21st century.<ref name="2007 ipcc global warming projections"/><ref>Temperatures are measured relative to the average global temperature averaged over the years 1980-1999, with the projected change averaged over 2090–2099.</ref> The "likely" range (as assessed to have a greater than 66% probability of being correct, based on the IPCC's expert judgement) is a projected increase in global mean temperature over the 21st century of between 1.1 and 6.4 °C.<ref name="2007 ipcc global warming projections"/>

The range in temperature projections partly reflects different projections of future greenhouse gas emissions.<ref name="2009 karl ipcc global warming projections"> Template:Cite book </ref>Template:Rp Different projections contain different assumptions of future social and economic development (e.g., economic growth, population level, energy policies), which in turn affects projections of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.<ref name="2009 karl ipcc global warming projections"/>Template:Rp The range also reflects uncertainty in the response of the climate system to past and future GHG emissions (measured by the climate sensitivity).<ref name="2009 karl ipcc global warming projections"/>Template:Rp

Chronology

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1992 The UN Conference on the Environment and Development is held in Rio de Janeiro. It results in the Framework Convention on Climate Change ("FCCC" or "UNFCCC") among other agreements.

1995 Parties to the UNFCCC meet in Berlin (the 1st Conference of Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC) to outline specific targets on emissions.

1997 In December the parties conclude the Kyoto Protocol in Kyoto, Japan, in which they agree to the broad outlines of emissions targets.

2002 Russia and Canada ratify the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC bringing the treaty into effect on 16 February 2005.

2011 Canada became the first signatory to announce its withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol.<ref>http://www.ec.gc.ca/Publications/default.asp?lang=En&n=EE4F06AE-1&xml=EE4F06AE-13EF-453B-B633-FCB3BAECEB4F&offset=3&toc=show Canadian government official archives</ref>

2012 On 31 December 2012, the first commitment period under the Protocol expired.

Article 2 of the UNFCCC

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Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).<ref> Template:Citation. Most countries in the world are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has adopted the 2 °C target. There are currently (as of 25 November 2011) 195 Parties (194 states and 1 regional economic integration organization (the European Union)) to the UNFCCC. </ref> Article 2 of the Convention states its ultimate objective, which is to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere "at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (i.e., human) interference with the climate system."<ref name="2001d ipcc article 2 of UNFCCC"> Template:Cite book </ref> The natural, technical, and social sciences can provide information on decisions relating to this objective, e.g., the possible magnitude and rate of future climate changes.<ref name="2001d ipcc article 2 of UNFCCC"/> However, the IPCC has also concluded that the decision of what constitutes "dangerous" interference requires value judgements, which will vary between different regions of the world.<ref name="2001d ipcc article 2 of UNFCCC"/> Factors that might affect this decision include the local consequences of climate change impacts, the ability of a particular region to adapt to climate change (adaptive capacity), and the ability of a region to reduce its GHG emissions (mitigative capacity).<ref name="2001d ipcc article 2 of UNFCCC"/>

Objectives

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The main goal of the Kyoto Protocol is to control emissions of the main anthropogenic (i.e., human-emitted) greenhouse gases (GHGs) in ways that reflect underlying national differences in GHG emissions, wealth, and capacity to make the reductions.<ref name="2004 grubb kyoto"> Template:Cite journal </ref> The treaty follows the main principles agreed in the original 1992 UN Framework Convention.<ref name="2004 grubb kyoto"/> According to the treaty, in 2012, Annex I Parties who have ratified the treaty must have fulfilled their obligations of greenhouse gas emissions limitations established for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period (2008–2012). These emissions limitation commitments are listed in Annex B of the Protocol.

The Kyoto Protocol's first round commitments are the first detailed step taken within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Gupta et al., 2007).<ref name=gupta/> The Protocol establishes a structure of rolling emission reduction commitment periods. It set a timetable starting in 2006 for negotiations to establish emission reduction commitments for a second commitment period (see Kyoto Protocol#Successor for details).<ref name="grubb commitments">Template:Harvnb</ref> The first period emission reduction commitments expired on 31 December 2012.

The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would stop dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."<ref name="unfccc2005">Template:Cite web</ref> Even if Annex I Parties succeed in meeting their first-round commitments, much greater emission reductions will be required in future to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations.<ref name="grubb commitments"/><ref name="ipcc kyoto stabilization"/>

For each of the different anthropogenic GHGs, different levels of emissions reductions would be required to meet the objective of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations (see United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change#Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations).<ref name="2007 meehl stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs"> Template:Cite book </ref> Carbon dioxide (Template:Chem) is the most important anthropogenic GHG.<ref> Template:Cite book </ref> Stabilizing the concentration of Template:Chem in the atmosphere would ultimately require the effective elimination of anthropogenic Template:Chem emissions.<ref name="2007 meehl stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs"/>

Some of the principal concepts of the Kyoto Protocol are:

• Binding commitments for the Annex I Parties. The main feature of the Protocol<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol overview">

Template:Citation </ref> is that it established legally binding commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases for Annex I Parties. The commitments were based on the Berlin Mandate, which was a part of UNFCCC negotiations leading up to the Protocol.<ref> Template:Citation </ref><ref name=liverman/>Template:Rp

• Implementation. In order to meet the objectives of the Protocol, Annex I Parties are required to prepare policies and measures for the reduction of greenhouse gases in their respective countries. In addition, they are required to increase the absorption of these gases and utilize all mechanisms available, such as joint implementation, the clean development mechanism and emissions trading, in order to be rewarded with credits that would allow more greenhouse gas emissions at home.
• Minimizing Impacts on Developing Countries by establishing an adaptation fund for climate change.
• Accounting, Reporting and Review in order to ensure the integrity of the Protocol.
• Compliance. Establishing a Compliance Committee to enforce compliance with the commitments under the Protocol.

First commitment period: 2008–12

Under the Kyoto Protocol, 38 industrialized countries and the European Community (the European Union-15, made up of 15 states at the time of the Kyoto negotiations) commit themselves to binding targets for GHG emissions.<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol overview"/> The targets apply to the four greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (Template:Chem), methane (Template:Chem), nitrous oxide (Template:Chem), sulphur hexafluoride (Template:Chem), and two groups of gases, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs).<ref name="grubb kyoto gases"> Template:Harvnb </ref> The six GHG are translated into CO₂ equivalents in determining reductions in emissions.<ref> The benchmark 1990 emission levels accepted by the Conference of the parties of UNFCCC (decision 2/CP.3) were the values of "global warming potential" calculated for the IPCC Second Assessment Report. These figures are used for converting the various greenhouse gas emissions into comparable carbon dioxide equivalents (CO₂-eq) when computing overall sources and sinks. Source: Template:Cite web </ref> These reduction targets are in addition to the industrial gases, chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are dealt with under the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.

Under the Protocol, only the Annex I Parties have committed themselves to national or joint reduction targets (formally called "quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives" (QELRO) – Article 4.1).<ref name="unfccc1997"> Template:Cite pressrelease</ref> Parties to the Kyoto Protocol not listed in Annex I of the Convention (the non-Annex I Parties) are mostly low-income developing countries,<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"/>Template:Rp and may participate in the Kyoto Protocol through the Clean Development Mechanism (explained below).<ref name="grubb commitments"/>

The emissions limitations of Annex I Parties varies between different Parties.<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol targets"> Template:Citation </ref> Some Parties have emissions limitations reduce below the base year level, some have limitations at the base year level (i.e., no permitted increase above the base year level), while others have limitations above the base year level.

Emission limits do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping.<ref name="shippingandaviation"> Template:Citation </ref> Although Belarus and Turkey are listed in the Convention's Annex I, they do not have emissions targets as they were not Annex I Parties when the Protocol was adopted.<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol targets"/> Kazakhstan does not have a target, but has declared that it wishes to become an Annex I Party to the Convention.<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol targets"/>

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Australia – 108% (2.1% of 1990 emissions) Austria – 87% Belarus – 95% (subject to acceptance by other parties) Belgium – 92.5% Bulgaria – 92% (0.6%) Canada – 94% (3.33%) Croatia – 95% () Czech Republic – 92% (1.24%) Denmark – 79% Estonia – 92% (0.28%)

Finland – 100% France – 100% Germany – 79% Greece – 125% Hungary – 94% (0.52%) Iceland – 110% (0.02%) Ireland – 113% Italy – 93.5% Japan – 94% (8.55%) Latvia – 92% (0.17%)

Liechtenstein – 92% (0.0015%) Lithuania – 92% () Luxembourg – 72% Netherlands – 94% New Zealand – 100% (0.19%) Norway – 101% (0.26%) Poland – 94% (3.02%) Portugal – 92% Romania – 92% (1.24%)

Russian Federation – 100% (17.4%) Slovakia – 92% (0.42%) Slovenia – 92% () Spain – 115% Sweden – 104% Switzerland – 92% (0.32%) Ukraine – 100% () United Kingdom – 87.5% United States of America – 93% (36.1%) (non-party)

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For most Parties, 1990 is the base year for the national GHG inventory and the calculation of the assigned amount.<ref name="2008 unfccc kyoto protocol reference manual"> Template:Citation </ref> However, five Parties have an alternative base year:<ref name="2008 unfccc kyoto protocol reference manual"/>

• Bulgaria: 1988;
• Hungary: the average of the years 1985–87;
• Poland: 1988;
• Romania: 1989;
• Slovenia: 1986.

Annex I Parties can use a range of sophisticated "flexibility" mechanisms (see below) to meet their targets. Annex I Parties can achieve their targets by allocating reduced annual allowances to major operators within their borders, or by allowing these operators to exceed their allocations by offsetting any excess through a mechanism that is agreed by all the parties to the UNFCCC, such as by buying emission allowances from other operators which have excess emissions credits.

Flexibility mechanisms

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The Protocol defines three "flexibility mechanisms" that can be used by Annex I Parties in meeting their emission limitation commitments.<ref> Template:Citation, in Template:Harvnb </ref>Template:Rp The flexibility mechanisms are International Emissions Trading (IET), the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and Joint Implementation (JI). IET allows Annex I Parties to "trade" their emissions (Assigned Amount Units, AAUs, or "allowances" for short).<ref>Clifford Chance LLP (2012). "Clean Development Mechanism: CDM and the UNFCC" http://a4id.org/sites/default/files/user/CDM%26UNFCCCcorrected.pdf . Advocates for International Development. Retrieved: 19 September 2013.</ref>

The economic basis for providing this flexibility is that the marginal cost of reducing (or abating) emissions differs among countries.<ref name="toth 2001 flexibility mechanisms"> Template:Citation, in Template:Harvnb </ref>Template:Rp<ref> Template:Citation, in Template:Harvnb </ref> "Marginal cost" is the cost of abating the last tonne of Template:Chem-eq for an Annex I/non-Annex I Party. At the time of the original Kyoto targets, studies suggested that the flexibility mechanisms could reduce the overall (aggregate) cost of meeting the targets.<ref name="hourcade 2001 economic costs of flexibility mechanisms"> Template:Citation, in Template:Harvnb </ref> Studies also showed that national losses in Annex I gross domestic product (GDP) could be reduced by use of the flexibility mechanisms.<ref name="hourcade 2001 economic costs of flexibility mechanisms"/>

The CDM and JI are called "project-based mechanisms," in that they generate emission reductions from projects. The difference between IET and the project-based mechanisms is that IET is based on the setting of a quantitative restriction of emissions, while the CDM and JI are based on the idea of "production" of emission reductions.<ref name="toth 2001 flexibility mechanisms"/> The CDM is designed to encourage production of emission reductions in non-Annex I Parties, while JI encourages production of emission reductions in Annex I Parties.

The production of emission reductions generated by the CDM and JI can be used by Annex I Parties in meeting their emission limitation commitments.<ref> Template:Citation, in Template:Harvnb </ref> The emission reductions produced by the CDM and JI are both measured against a hypothetical baseline of emissions that would have occurred in the absence of a particular emission reduction project. The emission reductions produced by the CDM are called Certified Emission Reductions (CERs); reductions produced by JI are called Emission Reduction Units (ERUs). The reductions are called "credits" because they are emission reductions credited against a hypothetical baseline of emissions.Template:Citation needed

Each Annex I country is required to submit an annual report of inventories of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from sources and removals from sinks under UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. These countries nominate a person (called a "designated national authority") to create and manage its greenhouse gas inventory. Virtually all of the non-Annex I countries have also established a designated national authority to manage their Kyoto obligations, specifically the "CDM process". This determines which GHG projects they wish to propose for accreditation by the CDM Executive Board.

International Emissions Trading

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A number of emissions trading schemes (ETS) have been, or are planned to be, implemented.<ref name=hood> Template:Cite book </ref>Template:Rp

Asia

• Japan: emissions trading in Tokyo started in 2010. This scheme is run by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government.<ref name=hood/>Template:Rp

Europe

• European Union: the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), which started in 2005. This is run by the European Commission.<ref name=hood/>Template:Rp
• Norway: domestic emissions trading in Norway started in 2005.<ref name=hood/>Template:Rp This was run by the Norwegian Government, which is now a participant in the EU ETS.
• Switzerland: the Swiss ETS, which runs from 2008 to 2012, to coincide with the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period.<ref name=hood/>Template:Rp
• United Kingdom:
  • the UK Emissions Trading Scheme, which ran from 2002–06. This was a scheme run by the UK Government, which is now a participant in the EU ETS.<ref name=hood/>Template:Rp
  • the UK CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme, which started in 2010, and is run by the UK Government.<ref name=hood/>Template:Rp

North America

• Canada: emissions trading in Alberta, Canada, which started in 2007. This is run by the Government of Alberta.<ref name=hood/>Template:Rp
• United States:
  • the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), which started in 2009. This scheme caps emissions from power generation in ten north-eastern US states (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont).<ref name=hood/>Template:Rp
  • emissions trading in California, which started in 2013.<ref name=hood/>Template:Rp
• the Western Climate Initiative (WCI), which is planned to start in 2012. This is a collective ETS agreed between 11 US states and Canadian provinces.<ref name=hood/>Template:Rp

Oceania

• Australia: the New South Wales Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scheme (NSW), which started in 2003. This scheme is run by the Australian State of New South Wales, and has now joined the Alfa Climate Stabilization (ACS).<ref name=hood/>Template:Rp
• New Zealand: the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme, which started in 2008.<ref name=hood/>Template:Rp

Intergovernmental Emissions Trading

The design of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) implicitly allows for trade of national Kyoto obligations to occur between participating countries (Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 24).<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market"/> Carbon Trust (2009, pp. 24–25) found that other than the trading that occurs as part of the EU ETS, no intergovernmental emissions trading had taken place.<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market"/>

One of the environmental problems with IET is the large surplus of allowances that are available. Russia, Ukraine, and the new EU-12 member states (the Kyoto Parties Annex I Economies-in-Transition, abbreviated "IET": Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine)<ref> Template:Citation </ref>Template:Rp have a surplus of allowances, while many OECD countries have a deficit.<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market"/>Template:Rp Some of the EITs with a surplus regard it as potential compensation for the trauma of their economic restructuring.<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market"/>Template:Rp When the Kyoto treaty was negotiated, it was recognized that emissions targets for the EITs might lead to them having an excess number of allowances.<ref> Template:Cite book </ref> This excess of allowances were viewed by the EITs as "headroom" to grow their economies.<ref> Template:Citation OECD reference: COM/ENV/EPOC/IEA/SLT(2003)9 </ref> The surplus has, however, also been referred to by some as "hot air," a term which Russia (a country with an estimated surplus of 3.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent allowances) views as "quite offensive."<ref> Template:Citation </ref>

OECD countries with a deficit could meet their Kyoto commitments by buying allowances from transition countries with a surplus. Unless other commitments were made to reduce the total surplus in allowances, such trade would not actually result in emissions being reduced<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market"/>Template:Rp (see also the section below on the Green Investment Scheme).

Green Investment Scheme

A Green Investment Scheme (GIS) refers to a plan for achieving environmental benefits from trading surplus allowances (AAUs) under the Kyoto Protocol.<ref name="Definition of Green Investment Scheme (GIS)"> Template:Citation </ref> The Green Investment Scheme (GIS), a mechanism in the framework of International Emissions Trading (IET), is designed to achieve greater flexibility in reaching the targets of the Kyoto Protocol while preserving environmental integrity of IET. However, using the GIS is not required under the Kyoto Protocol, and there is no official definition of the term.<ref name="Definition of Green Investment Scheme (GIS)"/>

Under the GIS a Party to the Protocol expecting that the development of its economy will not exhaust its Kyoto quota, can sell the excess of its Kyoto quota units (AAUs) to another Party. The proceeds from the AAU sales should be "greened", i.e. channeled to the development and implementation of the projects either acquiring the greenhouse gases emission reductions (hard greening) or building up the necessary framework for this process (soft greening).<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market"/>Template:Rp

Trade in AAUs

Latvia was one of the front-runners of GISs. World Bank (2011)<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus"> Template:Citation </ref>Template:Rp reported that Latvia has stopped offering AAU sales because of low AAU prices. In 2010, Estonia was the preferred source for AAU buyers, followed by the Czech Republic and Poland.<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus"/>Template:Rp

Japan's national policy to meet their Kyoto target includes the purchase of AAUs sold under GISs.<ref> Template:Citation </ref> In 2010, Japan and Japanese firms were the main buyers of AAUs.<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus"/>Template:Rp In terms of the international carbon market, trade in AAUs are a small proportion of overall market value.<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus"/>Template:Rp In 2010, 97% of trade in the international carbon market was driven by the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS).<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus"/>Template:Rp However, firms regulated under the EU ETS are unable to use AAUs in meeting their emissions caps.<ref> Template:Cite book This document can also be downloaded as a PDF file </ref>

Clean Development Mechanism

Between 2001, which was the first year Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects could be registered, and 2012, the end of the first Kyoto commitment period, the CDM is expected to produce some 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) in emission reductions.<ref name=wdr>Template:Cite web</ref> Most of these reductions are through renewable energy commercialisation, energy efficiency, and fuel switching (World Bank, 2010, p. 262). By 2012, the largest potential for production of CERs are estimated in China (52% of total CERs) and India (16%). CERs produced in Latin America and the Caribbean make up 15% of the potential total, with Brazil as the largest producer in the region (7%).

Joint Implementation

The formal crediting period for Joint Implementation (JI) was aligned with the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, and did not start until January 2008 (Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 20).<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market">Template:Cite web</ref> In November 2008, only 22 JI projects had been officially approved and registered. The total projected emission savings from JI by 2012 are about one tenth that of the CDM. Russia accounts for about two-thirds of these savings, with the remainder divided up roughly equally between the Ukraine and the EU's New Member States. Emission savings include cuts in methane, HFC, and N₂O emissions.

Stabilization of GHG concentrations

As noted earlier on, the first-round Kyoto emissions limitation commitments are not sufficient to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of GHGs. Stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations will require further emissions reductions after the end of the first-round Kyoto commitment period in 2012.<ref name="grubb commitments"/><ref name="ipcc kyoto stabilization"> Template:Citation , p.122, in Template:Harvnb </ref>

Background

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Analysts have developed scenarios of future changes in GHG emissions that lead to a stabilization in the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs.<ref> Template:Citation , in Template:Harvnb </ref> Climate models suggest that lower stabilization levels are associated with lower magnitudes of future global warming, while higher stabilization levels are associated with higher magnitudes of future global warming (see figure opposite).<ref name="global warming and stabilization targets"/>

To achieve stabilization, global GHG emissions must peak, then decline.<ref name="emissions peak and decline"> Template:Citation , in Template:Harvnb </ref> The lower the desired stabilization level, the sooner this peak and decline must occur (see figure opposite).<ref name="emissions peak and decline"/> For a given stabilization level, larger emissions reductions in the near term allow for less stringent emissions reductions later on.<ref name="near term emissions reductions"> Template:Citation, in Template:Harvnb </ref> On the other hand, less stringent near term emissions reductions would, for a given stabilization level, require more stringent emissions reductions later on.<ref name="near term emissions reductions"/>

The first period Kyoto emissions limitations can be viewed as a first-step towards achieving atmospheric stabilization of GHGs.<ref name=gupta/> In this sense, the first period Kyoto commitments may affect what future atmospheric stabilization level can be achieved.<ref> Template:Citation </ref>

Relation to temperature targets

At the 16th Conference of the Parties held in 2010, Parties to the UNFCCC agreed that future global warming should be limited below 2°C relative to the pre-industrial temperature level.<ref> Template:Citation </ref> One of the stabilization levels discussed in relation to this temperature target is to hold atmospheric concentrations of GHGs at 450 parts per million (ppm) Template:Chem- eq.<ref> Template:Citation </ref> Stabilization at 450 ppm could be associated with a 26 to 78% risk of exceeding the 2 °C target.<ref> Template:Citation </ref>

Scenarios assessed by Gupta et al. (2007)<ref name="450ppm scenarios"> Template:Citation , in Template:Harvnb </ref> suggest that Annex I emissions would need to be 25% to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020, and 80% to 95% below 1990 levels by 2050. The only Annex I Parties to have made voluntary pledges in line with this are Japan (25% below 1990 levels by 2020) and Norway (30-40% below 1990 levels by 2020).<ref> Template:Citation PDF version is also available </ref>

Gupta et al. (2007)<ref name="450ppm scenarios"/> also looked at what 450 ppm scenarios projected for non-Annex I Parties. Projections indicated that by 2020, non-Annex I emissions in several regions (Latin America, the Middle East, East Asia, and centrally planned Asia) would need to be substantially reduced below "business-as-usual".<ref name="450ppm scenarios"/> "Business-as-usual" are projected non-Annex I emissions in the absence of any new policies to control emissions. Projections indicated that by 2050, emissions in all non-Annex I regions would need to be substantially reduced below "business-as-usual".<ref name="450ppm scenarios"/>

Details of the agreement

The agreement is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, which did not set any legally binding limitations on emissions or enforcement mechanisms. Only Parties to the UNFCCC can become Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted at the third session of the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 3) in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan.

National emission targets specified in the Kyoto Protocol exclude international aviation and shipping. Kyoto Parties can use land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) in meeting their targets.<ref name="Dessai 2001 3">Template:Harvnb</ref> LULUCF activities are also called "sink" activities. Changes in sinks and land use can have an effect on the climate,<ref> Template:Citation, in Template:Harvnb </ref> and indeed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry estimates that since 1750 a third of global warming has been caused by land use change.<ref>Robert T. Watson, Ian R. Noble, Bert Bolin, N. H. Ravindranath, David J. Verardo and David J. Dokken (editors), 2000, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, Cambridge University Press, UK</ref> Particular criteria apply to the definition of forestry under the Kyoto Protocol.

Forest management, cropland management, grazing land management, and revegetation are all eligible LULUCF activities under the Protocol.<ref name="forest management"> Template:Harvnb </ref> Annex I Parties use of forest management in meeting their targets is capped.<ref name="forest management"/>

Negotiations

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Article 4.2 of the UNFCCC commits industrialized countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing emissions.<ref name="grubb original unfccc target"> Template:Harvnb </ref> The initial aim was for industrialized countries to stabilize their emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000.<ref name="grubb original unfccc target"/> The failure of key industrialized countries to move in this direction was a principal reason why Kyoto moved to binding commitments.<ref name="grubb original unfccc target"/>

At the first UNFCCC Conference of the Parties in Berlin, the G77 was able to push for a mandate (the "Berlin mandate") where it was recognized that:<ref name="liverman berlin mandate"> Template:Harvnb </ref>

• developed nations had contributed most to the then-current concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere (see Greenhouse gas#Cumulative and historical emissions).
• developing country emissions per-capita (i.e., average emissions per head of population)<ref>

Template:Citation, in Template:Harvnb </ref> were still relatively low.

• and that the share of global emissions from developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.

During negotiations, the G-77 represented 133 developing countries. China was not a member of the group but an associate.<ref> Template:Harvnb </ref> It has since become a member.<ref> Template:Harvnb </ref>

The Berlin mandate was recognized in the Kyoto Protocol in that developing countries were not subject to emission reduction commitments in the first Kyoto commitment period.<ref name="liverman berlin mandate"/> However, the large potential for growth in developing country emissions made negotiations on this issue tense.<ref name="grubb developing country emissions"> Template:Harvnb </ref> In the final agreement, the Clean Development Mechanism was designed to limit emissions in developing countries, but in such a way that developing countries do not bear the costs for limiting emissions.<ref name="grubb developing country emissions"/> The general assumption was that developing countries would face quantitative commitments in later commitment periods, and at the same time, developed countries would meet their first round commitments.<ref name="grubb developing country emissions"/>

Emissions cuts

Views on the Kyoto Protocol#Commentaries on negotiations contains a list of the emissions cuts that were proposed by UNFCCC Parties during negotiations. The G77 and China were in favour of strong uniform emission cuts across the developed world.<ref name="liverman negotiations"> Template:Harvnb </ref> The US originally proposed for the second round of negotiations on Kyoto commitments to follow the negotiations of the first.<ref name="grubb second round negotiations"> Template:Harvnb </ref> In the end, negotiations on the second period were set to open no later than 2005.<ref name="grubb second round negotiations"/> Countries over-achieving in their first period commitments can "bank" their unused allowances for use in the subsequent period.<ref name="grubb second round negotiations"/>

The EU initially argued for only three GHGs to be included – Template:Chem, Template:Chem, and Template:Chem – with other gases such as HFCs regulated separately.<ref name="liverman negotiations"/> The EU also wanted to have a "bubble" commitment, whereby it could make a collective commitment that allowed some EU members to increase their emissions, while others cut theirs.<ref name="liverman negotiations"/>

The most vulnerable nations – the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) – pushed for deep uniform cuts by developed nations, with the goal of having emissions reduced to the greatest possible extent.<ref name="liverman negotiations"/> Countries that had supported differentiation of targets had different ideas as to how it should be calculated, and many different indicators were proposed.<ref name="grubb differentiation"/> Two examples include differentiation of targets based on gross domestic product (GDP), and differentiation based on energy intensity (energy use per unit of economic output).<ref name="grubb differentiation"> Template:Harvnb </ref>

The final targets negotiated in the Protocol are the result of last minute political compromises.<ref name="liverman negotiations"/> The targets closely match those decided by Argentinian Raul Estrada, the diplomat who chaired the negotiations.<ref> Template:Harvnb </ref> The numbers given to each Party by Chairman Estrada were based on targets already pledged by Parties, information received on latest negotiating positions, and the goal of achieving the strongest possible environmental outcome.<ref> Template:Harvnb </ref> The final targets are weaker than those proposed by some Parties, e.g., the Alliance of Small Island States and the G-77 and China, but stronger than the targets proposed by others, e.g., Canada and the United States.<ref> Template:Harvnb </ref>

Financial commitments

The Protocol also reaffirms the principle that developed countries have to pay billions of dollars, and supply technology to other countries for climate-related studies and projects. The principle was originally agreed in UNFCCC. One such project is The Adaptation Fund"<ref>http://www.adaptation-fund.org/</ref>", that has been established by the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to finance concrete adaptation projects and programmes in developing countries that are Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.

Implementational provisions

The protocol left several issues open to be decided later by the sixth Conference of Parties COP6 of the UNFCCC, which attempted to resolve these issues at its meeting in the Hague in late 2000, but it was unable to reach an agreement due to disputes between the European Union (who favoured a tougher implementation) and the United States, Canada, Japan and Australia (who wanted the agreement to be less demanding and more flexible).

In 2001, a continuation of the previous meeting (COP6bis) was held in Bonn where the required decisions were adopted. After some concessions, the supporters of the protocol (led by the European Union) managed to get the agreement of Japan and Russia by allowing more use of carbon dioxide sinks.

COP7 was held from 29 October 2001 through 9 November 2001 in Marrakech to establish the final details of the protocol.

The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP1) was held in Montreal from 28 November to 9 December 2005, along with the 11th conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP11). See United Nations Climate Change Conference.

During COP13 in Bali, 36 developed Contact Group countries (plus the EU as a party in the European Union) agreed to a 10% emissions increase for Iceland; but, since the EU's member states each have individual obligations,<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> much larger increases (up to 27%) are allowed for some of the less developed EU countries (see below Kyoto Protocol#Increase in greenhouse gas emission since 1990).<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> Reduction limitations expired in 2013.

Mechanism of compliance

The protocol defines a mechanism of "compliance" as a "monitoring compliance with the commitments and penalties for non-compliance."<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> According to Grubb (2003),<ref name="grubb compliance"> Template:Harvnb </ref> the explicit consequences of non-compliance of the treaty are weak compared to domestic law.<ref name="grubb compliance"/> Yet, the compliance section of the treaty was highly contested in the Marrakesh Accords.<ref name="grubb compliance"/>

Enforcement

If the enforcement branch determines that an Annex I country is not in compliance with its emissions limitation, then that country is required to make up the difference during the second commitment period plus an additional 30%. In addition, that country will be suspended from making transfers under an emissions trading program.<ref> Template:Cite web</ref>

Ratification process

The Protocol was adopted by COP 3 of UNFCCC on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. It was opened on 16 March 1998 for signature during one year by parties to UNFCCC, when it was signed Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, the Maldives, Samoa, St. Lucia and Switzerland. At the end of the signature period, 82 countries and the European Community had signed. Ratification (which is required to become a party to the Protocol) started on 17 September with ratification of Fiji. Countries that did not sign acceded to the convention, which has the same legal effect.<ref name=parties/>

Article 25 of the Protocol specifies that the Protocol enters into force "on the ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Annex I countries, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession."<ref>Template:Cite web</ref>

The EU and its Member States ratified the Protocol in May 2002.<ref>Template:Cite press release</ref> Of the two conditions, the "55 parties" clause was reached on 23 May 2002 when Iceland ratified the Protocol.<ref name=parties>Template:Cite web</ref> The ratification by Russia on 18 November 2004 satisfied the "55%" clause and brought the treaty into force, effective 16 February 2005, after the required lapse of 90 days.<ref>Template:Cite web</ref>

As of May 2013, 191 countries and one regional economic organization (the EC) have ratified the agreement, representing over 61.6% of the 1990 emissions from Annex I countries.<ref name = "Kyoto-PDF-unfccc">Template:Cite web</ref> One of the 191 ratifying states—Canada—has denounced the protocol.

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Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahamas Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil Brunei Bulgaria Burkina Faso Myanmar Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Chile China Colombia Comoros Democratic Republic of the Congo Republic of the Congo Cook Islands Costa Rica Ivory Coast Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Djibouti Dominica

Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia European Union Fiji Finland France Gabon Gambia Georgia Germany Ghana Greece Grenada Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kiribati North Korea South Korea Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Laos Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya

Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Republic of Macedonia Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Malta Marshall Islands Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Federated States of Micronesia Moldova Monaco Mongolia Montenegro Morocco Mozambique Namibia Nauru Nepal Netherlands New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Niue Norway Oman Pakistan Palau Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Qatar Romania Russia Rwanda Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Samoa San Marino

São Tomé and Príncipe Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Seychelles Sierra Leone Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Solomon Islands Somalia (non-party to Kyoto) South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Suriname Swaziland Sweden Switzerland Syria Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Timor-Leste Togo Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Tuvalu Uganda Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States (non-party to Kyoto) Uruguay Uzbekistan Vanuatu Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe Observers: Andorra (non-party to Kyoto) Holy See (non-party to Kyoto)

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Non-ratification by the US

The US signed the Protocol on 12 November 1998,<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> during the Clinton presidency. To become binding in the US, however, the treaty had to be ratified by the Senate, which had already passed the 1997 non-binding Byrd-Hagel Resolution, expressing disapproval of any international agreement that did not require developing countries to make emission reductions and "would seriously harm the economy of the United States". The resolution passed 95-0.<ref>Byrd-Hagel Resolution (http://www.nationalcenter.org/KyotoSenate.html)</ref> Therefore, even though the Clinton administration signed the treaty,<ref>"Clinton Hails Global Warming Pact". All Politics (CNN). 11 December 1997. Retrieved 5 November 2006.</ref> it was never submitted to the Senate for ratification.

When George W. Bush was elected US president in 2000, he was asked by US Senator Chuck Hagel what his administration's position was on climate change. Bush replied that he took climate change "very seriously",<ref>http://www.ontheissues.org/Celeb/George_W__Bush_Energy_+_Oil.htm#56</ref> but that he opposed the Kyoto treaty, because "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy".<ref name="Dessai 2001 5">Template:Harvnb</ref> The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research reported in 2001:

This policy reversal received a massive wave of criticism that was quickly picked up by the international media. Environmental groups blasted the White House, while Europeans and Japanese alike expressed deep concern and regret. [...] Almost all world leaders (e.g. China, Japan, South Africa, Pacific Islands, etc.) expressed their disappointment at Bush's decision.

In response to this criticism, Bush stated: "I was responding to reality, and reality is the nation has got a real problem when it comes to energy". The Tyndall Centre called this "an overstatement used to cover up the big benefactors of this policy reversal, i.e., the US oil and coal industry, which has a powerful lobby with the administration and conservative Republican congressmen."<ref>Template:Harvnb</ref>

As of 2016, the US is the only signatory that has not ratified the Protocol.<ref>Participant list by UN</ref>

The US accounted for 36% of emissions in 1990. As such, for the treaty to go into legal effect without US ratification would require a coalition including the EU, Russia, Japan, and small parties. A deal, without at that moment the US Administration, was reached in the Bonn climate talks (COP-6.5), held in 2001.<ref>Template:Harvnb</ref>

Withdrawal of Canada

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In 2011, Canada, Japan and Russia stated that they would not take on further Kyoto targets.<ref name=canadaguardian>Template:Cite web</ref> The Canadian government announced its withdrawal—possible at any time three years after ratification—from the Kyoto Protocol on 12 December 2011, effective 15 December 2012.<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> Canada was committed to cutting its greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels by 2012, but in 2009 emissions were 17% higher than in 1990. The Harper government prioritized oil sands development in Alberta, and deprioritized improving the environment. Environment minister Peter Kent cited Canada's liability to "enormous financial penalties" under the treaty unless it withdrew.<ref name=canadaguardian/><ref>Template:Cite web</ref> He also suggested that the recently signed Durban agreement may provide an alternative way forward.<ref name="bbc canada withdrawal">Template:Cite news</ref> The Harper government claimed it would find a "Made in Canada" solution, but never found any such solution. Canada's decision received a generally negative response from representatives of other ratifying countries.<ref name="bbc canada withdrawal"/>

Justin Trudeau, the new Prime Minister of Canada who is from the Liberal Party as opposed to the previous Conservative administration of Steven Harper has been quoted saying he "Will restore the place of science in evidence-based policy making." <ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Trudeau has restored a position of Chief Science Advisor which Harper eliminated during his term in 2008. <ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> Harper had a focus on easing the burdens of the oil and gas industry and pipelines, which is a profitable industry in Canada, especially Alberta. Trudeau has also created a whole new position, the Minister of Science. <ref>Template:Cite journal</ref>

Other states and territories where the treaty is not applicable

Andorra, Palestine, South Sudan, the United States and, following their withdrawal on 15 December 2012, Canada are the only UNFCCC Parties that are not party to the Protocol. Furthermore, the Protocol is not applied to UNFCCC observer the Holy See. Although the Kingdom of the Netherlands approved the protocol for the whole Kingdom, it did not deposit an instrument of ratification for Aruba, Curaçao, Sint Maarten or the Caribbean Netherlands.<ref>Template:Cite web</ref>

Government action and emissions

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Annex I countries

Total aggregate GHG emissions excluding emissions/removals from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF, i.e., carbon storage in forests and soils) for all Annex I Parties (see list below) including the United States taken together decreased from 19.0 to 17.8 thousand teragrams (Tg, which is equal to 10⁹ kg) Template:Chem equivalent, a decline of 6.0% during the 1990-2008 period.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"> Template:Citation </ref>Template:Rp Several factors have contributed to this decline.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>Template:Rp The first is due to the economic restructuring in the Annex I Economies in Transition<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>Template:Rp (the EITs – see Intergovernmental Emissions Trading for the list of EITs). Over the period 1990-1999, emissions fell by 40% in the EITs following the collapse of central planning in the former Soviet Union and east European countries.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"> Template:Citation PBL publication number 500253004. JRC Technical Note number JRC65918.</ref>Template:Rp This led to a massive contraction of their heavy industry-based economies, with associated reductions in their fossil fuel consumption and emissions.<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market"/>Template:Rp

Emissions growth in Annex I Parties have also been limited due to policies and measures (PaMs).<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>Template:Rp In particular, PaMs were strengthened after 2000, helping to enhance energy efficiency and develop renewable energy sources.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>Template:Rp Energy use also decreased during the economic crisis in 2007-2008.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>Template:Rp

Projections

UNFCCC (2011)<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>Template:Rp made projections of changes in emissions of the Annex I Parties and the effectiveness of their PaMs. It was noted that their projections should be interpreted with caution.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>Template:Rp For the 39 Annex I Parties, UNFCCC (2011) projected that existing PaMs would lead to annual emissions in 2010 of 17.5 thousand Tg Template:Chem eq, excluding LULUCF, which is a decrease of 6.7% from the 1990 level.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>Template:Rp Annual emissions in 2020 excluding LULUCF were projected to reach 18.9 thousand Tg Template:Chem eq, which is an increase of 0.6% on the 1990 level.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>Template:Rp

UNFCCC (2011)<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>Template:Rp made an estimate of the total effect of implemented and adopted PaMs. Projected savings were estimated relative to a reference (baseline) scenario where PaMs are not implemented. PaMs were projected to deliver emissions savings relative to baseline of about 1.5 thousand Tg Template:Chem eq by 2010, and 2.8 thousand Tg Template:Chem eq by 2020.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>Template:Rp In percentage terms, and using annual emissions in the year 1990 as a reference point, PaMs were projected to deliver at least a 5.0% reduction relative to baseline by 2010, and a 10.0% reduction relative to baseline in 2020.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>Template:Rp Scenarios reviewed by UNFCCC (2011)<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>Template:Rp still suggested that total Annex I annual emissions would increase out to 2020 (see the preceding paragraph).

Annex I Parties with targets

Percentage changes in emissions for Annex I Parties with Kyoto targets<ref>Emissions data given in this table may not fully reflect progress towards the first-round Kyoto targets. This is because of the implicit trading of targets under the EU ETS (see Kyoto Protocol#Intergovernmental Emissions Trading), possible effects of trade in AAUs (see Kyoto Protocol#Trade in AAUs), and the use of different emissions base years for some Parties (see Kyoto Protocol#2012 emission targets and "flexible mechanisms").</ref>

Country/region	Kyoto target 2008-2012	Kyoto target 2013-2020	GHG emissions 1990-2008 including LULUCF<ref name="unfccc 2011 annex i emissions"> Template:Harvnb </ref><ref>Aggregate emissions of the Kyoto "basket" of GHGs (see Kyoto Protocol#2012 emission targets and "flexible mechanisms"), measured in carbon dioxide equivalent, and including changes in emissions due to carbon sinks (land use, land use change, and forestry)</ref> !! GHG emissions 1990-2008 excluding LULUCF<ref name="unfccc 2011 annex i emissions"/><ref>Aggregate emissions of the Kyoto "basket" of GHGs (see Kyoto Protocol#2012 emission targets and "flexible mechanisms"), measured in carbon dioxide equivalent, and excluding changes in emissions due to carbon sinks (land use, land use change, and forestry)</ref> !! Template:CO2 emissions from fuel combustion only 1990-2009 <ref> Template:Harvnb </ref><ref>{{CO2}} emissions from fuel combustion only. Estimates applying the Kyoto targets to International Energy Agency (IEA) data suggest the overall Kyoto target is equivalent to about 4.7% on an aggregate basis for {{CO2}} emissions from fuel combustion</ref>
North America	-	-	-	-	+20.4
Canada<ref name="Canada withdrawal">StarTribune - Canada formally pulls out of Kyoto Protocol on climate change Retrieved 4 May 2012.</ref><ref>In 2011, Canada withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol</ref>	-6	-	+33.6	+24.1	+20.4
Europe					-4.9
European Union	-8	-20<ref name=EU>For the region encompassing the European Union, Croatia and Iceland</ref>
Austria	-8 (-13)	-20<ref name=EU/>	+6.6	+10.8	+12.2
Belgium	-8 (-7.5)	-20<ref name=EU/>	-6.2	-7.1	-6.7
Denmark	-8 (-21)	-20<ref name=EU/>	-6.8	-6.8	-7.2
Finland	-8 (0)	-20<ref name=EU/>	-35.9	-0.2	+1.1
France	-8 (0)	-20<ref name=EU/>	-12.7	-5.9	+0.6<ref>Monaco's Template:CO2 emissions from fuel combustion are included with France's.</ref>
Germany	-8 (-21)	-20<ref name=EU/>	-17.6	-21.4	-21.1
Greece	-8 (+25)	-20<ref name=EU/>	+22.9	+23.1	+28.6
Iceland	+10	-20<ref name=EU/>	+19.2	+42.9	+6.2
Ireland	-8 (+13)	-20<ref name=EU/>	+19.9	+23.2	+32.4
Italy	-8 (-6.5)	-20<ref name=EU/>	+0.4	+4.7	-2.0
Luxembourg	-8 (-28)	-20<ref name=EU/>	-9.2	-4.8	-4.4
Netherlands	-8 (-6)	-20<ref name=EU/>	-2.4	-2.4	+13.0
Norway	+1	-16	-32.8	+9.4	+31.9
Portugal	-8 (+27)	-20<ref name=EU/>	+18.3	+32.2	+35.3
Spain	-8 (+15)	-20<ref name=EU/>	+44.0	+42.5	+37.7
Sweden	-8 (+4)	-20<ref name=EU/>	+19.8	-11.3	-20.9
Switzerland	-8	-15.8	+6.8	+0.4	+2.5
United Kingdom	-8 (-12.5)	-19.0	-18.5	-15.2
Asia and Oceania	-	-	-	+12.7
Australia	+8	-0.5	+33.1	+31.4	+51.8
Japan	-6	-	-0.2	+1.0	+2.7
New Zealand	0	-	+62.4	+22.7	+34.3
Economies in Transition	-	-	-	-36.2
Bulgaria	-8	-20<ref name=EU/>	-45.5	-42.8	-43.7
Croatia	-5	-20<ref name=EU/>	-13.7	-0.9	-8.4
Czech Republic	-8	-20<ref name=EU/>	-28.7	-27.5	-29.2
Estonia	-8	-20<ref name=EU/>	-69.9	-50.9	-59.4
Hungary	-6	-20<ref name=EU/>	-38.1	-36.2	-27.8
Latvia	-8	-20<ref name=EU/>	-307.9	-55.6	-63.8
Lithuania	-8	-20<ref name=EU/>	-69.1	-51.8	-62.6
Poland	-6	-20<ref name=EU/>	-34.4	-29.6	-16.2
Romania	-8	-20<ref name=EU/>	-53.5	-45.9	-53.1
Russian Federation	0	-	-52.8	-32.8	-29.7
Slovak Republic	-8	-20<ref name=EU/>	-34.4	-33.7	-41.5
Slovenia	-8	-20<ref name=EU/>	+5.2	+5.2	+21.2
Ukraine	0	-24	-52.2	-53.9	-62.7

Data given in the table above may not be fully reflective of a country's progress towards meeting its first-round Kyoto target. The summary below contains more up-to-date information on how close countries are to meeting their first-round targets.

Collectively the group of industrialized countries committed to a Kyoto target, i.e., the Annex I countries excluding the US, have a target of reducing their GHG emissions by 4.2% on average for the period 2008-2012 relative to the base year, which in most cases is 1990.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp According to Olivier et al. (2011),<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp the Kyoto Parties will comfortably exceed their collective target, with a projected average reduction of 16% for 2008-2012. This projection excludes both LULUCF and credits generated by the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp

As noted in the preceding section, between 1990–1999, there was a large reduction in the emissions of the EITs.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp The reduction in the EITs is largely responsible for the total (aggregate) reduction (excluding LULUCF) in emissions of the Annex I countries, excluding the US.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp Emissions of the Annex II countries (Annex I minus the EIT countries) have experienced a limited increase in emissions from 1990–2006, followed by stabilization and a more marked decrease from 2007 onwards.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp The emissions reductions in the early nineties by the 12 EIT countries who have since joined the EU, assist the present EU-27 in meeting its collective Kyoto target.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp

Almost all European countries are on track to achieve their first-round Kyoto targets.<ref name="eea 1st round kyoto"> Template:Harvnb </ref> Spain plans to meet its target by purchasing a large quantity of Kyoto units through the flexibility mechanisms.<ref name="eea 1st round kyoto"/> Australia,<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp Canada<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp (Canada withdrew from the Kyoto treaty in 2012),<ref name="vaughan 2011 canada withdrawal"/> and Italy<ref name="eea 1st round kyoto"/> are not on course to meet their first-round Kyoto targets. In order to meet their targets, these countries would need to purchase emissions credits from other Kyoto countries.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp As noted in the section on Intergovernmental Emissions Trading, purchasing surplus credits from the EIT countries would not actually result in total emissions being reduced. An alternative would be the purchase of CDM credits or the use of the voluntary Green Investment Scheme.

In December 2011, Canada's environment minister, Peter Kent, formally announced that Canada would withdraw from the Kyoto accord a day after the end of the 2011 United Nations Climate Change Conference (see the section on the withdrawal of Canada).<ref name="vaughan 2011 canada withdrawal"> Template:Cite web </ref>

Annex I Parties without Kyoto targets

Belarus, Malta, and Turkey are Annex I Parties but do not have first-round Kyoto targets.<ref> Template:Citation </ref> The US has a Kyoto target of a 6% reduction relative to the 1990 level, but has not ratified the treaty.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp Emissions in the US have increased 11% since 1990, and according to Olivier et al. (2011),<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp it will be unable to meet its original Kyoto target.

If the US had ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the average percentage reduction in total GHG emissions for the Annex I group would have been a 5.2% reduction relative to the base year.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp Including the US in their calculation, Olivier et al. (2011)<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp projected that the Annex I countries would collectively achieve a 7% reduction relative to the base year, which is lower than the original target of a 5.2% reduction. This projection excludes expected purchases of emissions credits.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>Template:Rp

Non-Annex I

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UNFCCC (2005) compiled and synthesized information reported to it by non-Annex I Parties.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"> Template:Citation</ref> Most non-Annex I Parties belonged in the low-income group, with very few classified as middle-income.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"/>Template:Rp Most Parties included information on policies relating to sustainable development. Sustainable development priorities mentioned by non-Annex I Parties included poverty alleviation and access to basic education and health care.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"/>Template:Rp Many non-Annex I Parties are making efforts to amend and update their environmental legislation to include global concerns such as climate change.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"/>Template:Rp

A few Parties, e.g., South Africa and Iran, stated their concern over how efforts to reduce emissions by Annex I Parties could adversely affect their economies.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"/>Template:Rp The economies of these countries are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing, and export of fossil fuels.

Emissions

GHG emissions, excluding land use change and forestry (LUCF), reported by 122 non-Annex I Parties for the year 1994 or the closest year reported, totalled 11.7 billion tonnes (billion = 1,000,000,000) of CO₂-eq. CO₂ was the largest proportion of emissions (63%), followed by methane (26%) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) (11%).

The energy sector was the largest source of emissions for 70 Parties, whereas for 45 Parties the agriculture sector was the largest. Per capita emissions (in tonnes of CO₂-eq, excluding LUCF) averaged 2.8 tonnes for the 122 non-Annex I Parties.

• The Africa region's aggregate emissions were 1.6 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of 2.4 tonnes.
• The Asia and Pacific region's aggregate emissions were 7.9 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of 2.6 tonnes.
• The Latin America and Caribbean region's aggregate emissions were 2 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of 4.6 tonnes.
• The "other" region includes Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Malta, Moldova, and Macedonia. Their aggregate emissions were 0.1 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of 5.1 tonnes.

Parties reported a high level of uncertainty in LUCF emissions, but in aggregate, there appeared to only be a small difference of 1.7% with and without LUCF. With LUCF, emissions were 11.9 billion tonnes, without LUCF, total aggregate emissions were 11.7 billion tonnes.

Trends

In several large developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, and Iran) GHG emissions have increased rapidly (PBL, 2009).<ref>Template:Cite web</ref> For example, emissions in China have risen strongly over the 1990–2005 period, often by more than 10% year. Emissions per-capita in non-Annex I countries are still, for the most part, much lower than in industrialized countries. Non-Annex I countries do not have quantitative emission reduction commitments, but they are committed to mitigation actions. China, for example, has had a national policy programme to reduce emissions growth, which included the closure of old, less efficient coal-fired power plants.

Cost estimates

Barker et al. (2007, p. 79) assessed the literature on cost estimates for the Kyoto Protocol.<ref>Template:Cite book</ref> Due to non-US participation in the Kyoto treaty, costs estimates were found to be much lower than those estimated in the previous IPCC Third Assessment Report. Without US participation, and with full use of the Kyoto flexible mechanisms, costs were estimated at less than 0.05% of Annex B GDP. This compared to earlier estimates of 0.1–1.1%. Without use of the flexible mechanisms, costs without US participation were estimated at less than 0.1%. This compared to earlier estimates of 0.2–2%. These cost estimates were viewed as being based on much evidence and high agreement in the literature.

Views on the Protocol

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Gupta et al. (2007) assessed the literature on climate change policy. They found that no authoritative assessments of the UNFCCC or its Protocol asserted that these agreements had, or will, succeed in solving the climate problem.<ref name=gupta>Template:Cite book</ref> In these assessments, it was assumed that the UNFCCC or its Protocol would not be changed. The Framework Convention and its Protocol include provisions for future policy actions to be taken.

Gupta et al. (2007)<ref name="gupta kyoto assessment"> Template:Citation , in Template:Harvnb </ref> described the Kyoto first-round commitments as "modest," stating that they acted as a constraint on the treaty's effectiveness. It was suggested that subsequent Kyoto commitments could be made more effective with measures aimed at achieving deeper cuts in emissions, as well as having policies applied to a larger share of global emissions.<ref name="gupta kyoto assessment"/> In 2008, countries with a Kyoto cap made up less than one-third of annual global carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion.<ref> Template:Cite book </ref>

World Bank (2010)<ref name="world bank kyoto comments"> Template:Citation, in Template:Harvnb </ref> commented on how the Kyoto Protocol had only had a slight effect on curbing global emissions growth. The treaty was negotiated in 1997, but in 2006, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions had grown by 24%.<ref> Template:Citation, in Template:Harvnb </ref> World Bank (2010) also stated that the treaty had provided only limited financial support to developing countries to assist them in reducing their emissions and adapting to climate change.<ref name="world bank kyoto comments"/>

Some of the criticism of the Protocol has been based on the idea of climate justice (Liverman, 2008, p. 14).<ref name=liverman>Template:Cite journal</ref>

This has particularly centered on the balance between the low emissions and high vulnerability of the developing world to climate change, compared to high emissions in the developed world. Another criticism of the Kyoto Protocol and other international conventions, is the right of indigenous peoples right to participate. Quoted here from The Declaration of the First International Forum of Indigenous Peoples on Climate Change, it says "Despite the recognition of our role in preventing global warming, when it comes time to sign international conventions like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, once again, our right to participate in national and international discussions that directly affect or Peoples and territories is denied."<ref name=":0">Template:Cite book</ref> Additionally, later in the declaration, it reads

"We denounce the fact that neither the [United Nations] nor the Kyoto Protocol recognizes the existence or the contributions of Indigenous Peoples. Furthermore, the debates under these instruments have not considered the suggestions and proposals of the Indigenous Peoples nor have the appropriate mechanisms to guarantee our participation in all the debates that directly concern the Indigenous Peoples has been established."<ref name=":0" />

Some environmentalists have supported the Kyoto Protocol because it is "the only game in town," and possibly because they expect that future emission reduction commitments may demand more stringent emission reductions (Aldy et al.., 2003, p. 9).<ref name=aldy>Template:Cite journal</ref> In 2001, seventeen national science academies stated that ratification of the Protocol represented a "small but essential first step towards stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases."<ref>

The joint-statement was made by the Australian Academy of Science, the Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Science and the Arts, the Brazilian Academy of Sciences, the Royal Society of Canada, the Caribbean Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the French Academy of Sciences, the German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina, the Indian National Science Academy, the Indonesian Academy of Sciences, the Royal Irish Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, the Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and the Royal Society (UK). Template:Citation. Statement website at the UK Royal Society. Also published as: Template:Citation </ref> Some environmentalists and scientists have criticized the existing commitments for being too weak (Grubb, 2000, p. 5).<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref>

The United States (under former President George W. Bush) and Australia (initially, under former Prime Minister John Howard) did not ratify the Kyoto treaty.<ref name="stern us and australia"> Template:Citation, in Template:Harvnb </ref> According to Stern (2006),<ref name="stern us and australia"/> their decision was based on the lack of quantitative emission commitments for emerging economies (see also the 2000 onwards section). Australia, under former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, has since ratified the treaty,<ref>Template:Cite news</ref><ref name="australia signing">Template:Cite news</ref> which took effect in March 2008.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>

Views on the flexibility mechanisms

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Another area which has been commented on is the role of the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms – emissions trading, Joint Implementation, and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).<ref name="toth flexibility mechanisms"> Toth et al. summarize the arguments for and against flexibility: Template:Citation, in Template:Harvnb </ref><ref> Template:Citation, in Template:Harvnb </ref> The flexibility mechanisms have attracted both positive and negative comments.<ref> Template:Citation, in Template:Harvnb </ref><ref> Template:Citation </ref><ref> Template:Harvnb </ref>

As mentioned earlier, a number of Annex I Parties have implemented emissions trading schemes (ETSs) as part of efforts to meet their Kyoto commitments. General commentaries on emissions trading are contained in emissions trading and carbon emission trading. Individual articles on the ETSs contain commentaries on these schemes (see Kyoto Protocol#International Emissions Trading for a list of ETSs).

One of the arguments made in favour of the flexibility mechanisms is that they can reduce the costs incurred by Annex I Parties in meeting their Kyoto commitments.<ref name="toth flexibility mechanisms"/> Criticisms of flexibility have, for example, included the ineffectiveness of emissions trading in promoting investment in non-fossil energy sources,<ref> Template:Citation </ref> and adverse impacts of CDM projects on local communities in developing countries.<ref> Template:Harvnb </ref>

Philosophy

As the Kyoto Protocol seeks to reduce environmental pollutants while at the same time altering the freedoms of some citizens.

As discussed by Milton Friedman, one can achieve both economic and political freedom through capitalism; nonetheless, it is never guaranteed that one is going to have equality of wealth of those on top of the “food chain” of this capitalistic world.<ref>Template:Cite journal</ref> All these alterations come to what the leaders of the citizens choose to impose in means of improving ones lifestyle. In the case of the Kyoto Protocol, it seeks to impose regulations that will reduce production of pollutants towards the environment. Furthermore, seeking to compromise the freedoms of both private and public citizens. In one side it imposes bigger regulations towards companies and reducing their profits as they need to fulfill such regulations with, which are often times more expensive, alternatives for production. On the other hand, it seeks to reduce the emissions that potentially cause the rapid environmental change called climate change.

The conditions of the Kyoto Protocol consist of mandatory targets on greenhouse gas emissions for the world's leading economies. As provided by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, "These targets range from -8 per cent to +10 per cent of the countries' individual 1990 emissions levels with a view to reducing their overall emissions of such gases by at least 5 per cent below existing 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012." <ref>Template:Cite web</ref>

These goals are challenged, however, by climate change deniers, who condemn strong scientific evidence of the human impact on climate change. One prominent scholar opines that these climate change deniers "arguably" breach Rousseau's notion of the social contract, which is an implicit agreement among the members of a society to coordinate efforts in the name of overall social benefit. The climate change denial movement hinders efforts at coming to agreements as a collective global society on climate change.<ref>Template:Cite book</ref>

Conference of the Parties

Template:Further information The official meeting of all states party to the Kyoto Protocol is the Conference of the Parties. It is held every year as part of the United Nations Climate Change conference, which also serves as the formal meeting of UNFCCC. The first Meetings of Parties of the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) was held in 2005 in conjunction with the eleventh Conferences of parties to UNFCCC (COP). Also parties to the Convention that are not parties to the Protocol can participate in Protocol-related meetings as observers. The first conference was held in 1995 in Berlin, while the 2013 conference was held in Warsaw. Later COPs were held in Lima, Peru in 2014 and in Paris, France in 2015.

Amendment and possible successors

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In the non-binding "Washington Declaration" agreed on 16 February 2007, heads of governments from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa agreed in principle on the outline of a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. They envisaged a global cap-and-trade system that would apply to both industrialized nations and developing countries, and initially hoped that it would be in place by 2009.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref><ref>Template:Cite web</ref>

The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 was one of the annual series of UN meetings that followed the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio. In 1997 the talks led to the Kyoto Protocol, and the conference in Copenhagen was considered to be the opportunity to agree a successor to Kyoto that would bring about meaningful carbon cuts.<ref>Template:Cite web</ref><ref>Template:Cite web</ref>

The 2010 Cancún agreements include voluntary pledges made by 76 developed and developing countries to control their emissions of greenhouse gases.<ref name="king 2011 cancun agreement"> Template:Citation PDF version is also available </ref> In 2010, these 76 countries were collectively responsible for 85% of annual global emissions.<ref name="king 2011 cancun agreement"/><ref name="unep 2012 emissions gap"> Template:Citation Executive summary in other languages </ref>

By May 2012, the US, Japan, Russia, and Canada had indicated they would not sign up to a second Kyoto commitment period.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> In November 2012, Australia confirmed it would participate in a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol and New Zealand confirmed that it would not.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>

New Zealand's climate minister Tim Groser said the 15-year-old Kyoto Protocol was outdated, and that New Zealand was "ahead of the curve" in looking for a replacement that would include developing nations.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> Non-profit environmental organisations such as the World Wildlife Fund criticised New Zealand's decision to pull out.<ref>Template:Cite news</ref>

On 8 December 2012, at the end of the 2012 United Nations Climate Change Conference, an agreement was reached to extend the Protocol to 2020 and to set a date of 2015 for the development of a successor document, to be implemented from 2020 (see lede for more information).<ref>Template:Cite news</ref> The outcome of the Doha talks has received a mixed response, with small island states critical of the overall package.The Kyoto second commitment period applies to about 11% of annual global emissions of greenhouse gases. Other results of the conference include a timetable for a global agreement to be adopted by 2015 which includes all countries.<ref name="unfccc 2012 doha press release"> Template:Citation, p.2. </ref> At the Doha meeting of the parties to the UNFCCC on 8 December 2012, the European Union chief climate negotiator, Artur Runge-Metzger, pledged to extend the treaty, binding on the 27 European Member States, up to the year 2020 pending an internal ratification procedure.

Ban Ki Moon, Secretary General of the United Nations, called on world leaders to come to an agreement on halting global warming during the 69th Session of the UN General Assembly<ref>http://sd.iisd.org/events/69th-session-of-the-un-general-assembly-unga-69</ref> on 23 September 2014 in New York. UN member states have been negotiating a future climate deal over the last five years. A preliminary calendar was adopted to confirm "national contributions" to the reduction of CO2 emissions by 2015 before the UN climate summit which will be held in Paris 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference.

See also

• Alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol and successor
• Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
• Business action on climate change
• Carbon emission trading
• Carbon footprint
• Clean Development Mechanism
• Climate legislation
• Copenhagen Accord
• Environmental agreements
• Environmental impact of aviation
• Environmental law
• Environmental tariff
• List of climate change initiatives
• List of international environmental agreements
• Low-carbon economy
• Montreal Protocol
• Net Capacity Factor
• Paris Agreement
• Politics of global warming
• Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation or REDD
• Sustainability
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or UNFCCC
• World People's Conference on Climate Change
• Action for climate empowerment (ACE)

Notes

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References

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Further reading

• Ekardt, F./von Hövel, A.: Distributive Justice, Competitiveness, and Transnational Climate Protection. In: Carbon & Climate Law Review, Vol. 3., 2009, p. 102–114.
• Katy Longden, Roshni Pabari, Munir Hassan, and Dalia Majumder-Russel, "Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaptation (A Legal Guide)." Advocates for International Development (June 2012)
• Romain Morel, and Igor Shishlov, "Ex-post evaluation of the Kyoto Protocol : Four key lessons for the 2015 Paris Agreement." CDC Climat Research (May 2014)

Economics

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External links

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• Protocol text (HTML and PDF), 2007 and 2012 amendment
• List of countries who have ratified, accepted, approved, or accessed the Kyoto Protocol, its first amendment (Targets for Belarus) and its second amendment (extension period 2012-2020)
• Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at Law-Ref.org – fully indexed and crosslinked with other documents
• The layman's guide to the Kyoto Protocol
• Kyoto: On Target? – Google Docs
• Introductory note by Laurence Boisson de Chazournes, procedural history note and audiovisual material on the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in the Historic Archives of the United Nations Audiovisual Library of International Law

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