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{{About|the international treaty|the rock band|Kyoto Protocol (band)}}
{{Infobox Treaty
| name                = Kyoto Protocol
| long_name           = Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
| image               = Kyoto Protocol parties.svg
| image_width         = 350
| caption =    {{legend|#008000|Annex B parties with binding targets in the second period}} {{legend|purple|Annex B parties with binding targets in the first period but not the second}}  {{legend|#0000FF|non-Annex B parties without binding targets}} {{legend|#EEEE00|Annex B parties with binding targets in the first period but which withdrew from the Protocol}} {{legend|orange|Signatories to the Protocol that have not ratified}} {{legend|#FF1111|Other UN member states and observers that are not party to the Protocol}}
| date_drafted        =
| date_signed         = {{dts|11 December 1997}}<ref name=parties/>
| location_signed     = [[Kyoto]], Japan
| date_sealed         =
| date_effective      = 16 February 2005<ref name=parties/>
| condition_effective = Ratification by at least 55 States to the Convention
| date_expiration     = in force<br>(first commitment period expired 31 December 2012)<ref>http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf</ref>
| signatories         = 84<ref name=parties/>
| parties           = [[List of parties to the Kyoto Protocol|192]]<ref>http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.php</ref><ref name=UNlist>{{cite web|url=https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-a&chapter=27&lang=en|title=7 .a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|work=UN Treaty Database|accessdate=27 November 2014}}</ref> <small>EU, Cook Islands, Niue and all [[UN member states]], except Andorra, Canada, South Sudan and US</small>
| depositor           =[[Secretary-General of the United Nations]]
| language            =
| languages           =Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian and Spanish
| website             = 
| wikisource          =Kyoto Protocol
}}
{{Infobox Treaty
| name                = Kyoto Protocol Extension (2012–20)
| long_name           = Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol
| type                =
| image            = Doha Amendment of Kyoto.svg
| image_width  =350
| caption             =Acceptance of the Doha Amendment
{{legend|#32CD32; |States that ratified}}
{{legend|#b9b9b9|Kyoto protocol parties that did not ratify}}
{{legend|#e9e9e9|Non-parties to the Kyoto Protocol}}
| date_drafted        =8 December 2012
| date_signed         = 
| location_signed     = [[Doha]], [[Qatar]]
| date_sealed         =
| date_effective      = not in effect
| condition_effective = ratification by 144 (3/4 of 192 Parties) required
| date_expiration     =
| signatories         = <!--there is only ratification/acception...-->
| ratifiers           = 77<ref>{{cite web|url=https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-c&chapter=27&clang=_en|title=7 .c Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol|work=UN Treaty Database|accessdate=19 April 2015}}</ref>
| depositor           =
| language            =
| languages           =
| website             = 
| wikisource          =Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol
}}

{{Use dmy dates|date=December 2014}}

[[File:Kyoto Parties with first period (2008-2012) greenhouse gas emissions limitations targets and the percentage change in their carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion between 1990 and 2009.png|thumb|400px|alt=Refer to caption|Kyoto Parties with first period (2008–12) greenhouse gas emissions limitations targets, and the percentage change in their carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion between 1990 and 2009. For more detailed country/region information, see [[Kyoto Protocol and government action]].]]

[[File:Overview map of states committed to greenhouse gas limitations in the first Kyoto Protocol period (years 2008-2012) (greyscale).png|thumb|400px|alt=Refer to caption|Overview map of states committed to greenhouse gas (GHG) limitations in the first Kyoto Protocol period (2008–12):<ref>{{cite web
 | date=n.d.
 | url=http://unfccc.int/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/items/1678.php
 | title=Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Annex B
 | publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
 | accessdate=8 October 2011}}
</ref><br />
{{legend|#000000|Annex I Parties who have agreed to reduce their GHG emissions below their individual base year levels (see definition in this article)}}
{{legend|#737373|Annex I Parties who have agreed to cap their GHG emissions at their base year levels}} {{legend|#f2f2f2|Non-Annex I Parties who are not obligated by caps or Annex I Parties with an emissions cap that allows their emissions to expand above their base year levels or countries that have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol}}
<br />
For specific emission reduction commitments of Annex I Parties, see the section of the article on [[Kyoto Protocol#2012 emission targets and "flexible mechanisms"|2012 emission targets and "flexible mechanisms"]].<br />
<br />
The European Union as a whole has in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol committed itself to an 8% reduction. However, many member states (such as Greece, Spain, Ireland and Sweden) have not committed themselves to any reduction while France has committed itself not to expand its emissions (0% reduction).<ref>KOM(2007) final edition page 2{{full citation needed|date=November 2012}}</ref>]]

The '''Kyoto Protocol''' is an international [[treaty]] which extends the 1992 [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] (UNFCCC) that commits State Parties to reduce [[greenhouse gas]] emissions, based on the premise that (a) [[global warming]] exists and (b) human-made [[Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere|CO<sub>2</sub> emissions]] have caused it. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in [[Kyoto]], [[Japan]], on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. There are currently 192 parties ([[Canada]] withdrew effective December 2012)<ref name=UNlist/> to the Protocol.

The  Kyoto Protocol implemented the objective of the UNFCCC to fight global warming by reducing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to "a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" (Art. 2). The Protocol is based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities: it puts the obligation to reduce current emissions on developed countries on the basis that they are historically responsible for the current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The Protocol's first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. A second commitment period was agreed on in 2012, known as the Doha Amendment to the protocol, in which 37 countries have binding targets: [[Australia]], the [[European Union]] (and its 28 [[Member states of the European Union|member states]]), [[Belarus]], [[Iceland]], [[Kazakhstan]], [[Liechtenstein]], [[Norway]], [[Switzerland]], and [[Ukraine]]. Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine have stated that they may withdraw from the Protocol or not put into legal force the Amendment with second round targets.<ref name="figueres doha summary">{{citation | last=Figueres | first= C. | title=Environmental issues: Time to abandon blame-games and become proactive - Economic Times | work=The Economic Times / Indiatimes.com| publisher=Times Internet | url=http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-12-15/news/35836633_1_emission-reduction-targets-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-climate-change | date=15 December 2012 | accessdate=2012-12-18}}</ref> Japan, [[New Zealand]] and [[Russia]] have participated in Kyoto's first-round but have not taken on new targets in the second commitment period. Other developed countries without second-round targets are Canada (which withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in 2012) and the [[United States]] (which has not ratified the Protocol). As of July 2016, 66<ref>{{cite web|title=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|url=http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/doha_amendment/items/7362.php|website=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|accessdate=23 July 2016|ref=66}}</ref> states have accepted the Doha Amendment, while entry into force requires the acceptances of 144 states. Of the 37 countries with binding commitments, 7 have ratified.

Negotiations were held in the framework of the yearly UNFCCC Climate Change Conferences on measures to be taken after the second commitment period ends in 2020. This resulted in the 2015 adoption of the [[Paris Agreement]], which is a separate instrument under the UNFCCC rather than an amendment of the Kyoto protocol.

==Background==

{{Main article|Global warming}}
{{See also|global climate model#Projections of future climate change|Scientific opinion on climate change}}

The view that human activities are likely responsible for most of the observed increase in global mean temperature ("global warming") since the mid-20th century is an accurate reflection of current scientific thinking.<ref>
{{cite book
|year=2001
|author=US National Research Council
|chapter=Summary
|title=Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions
|publisher=National Academy Press
|location=Washington, D.C., U.S.A.
|url=http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10139&page=3
|page=3
}}
</ref><ref name="2008 us nrc Understanding and Responding to Climate Change">
{{cite book
|year=2008
|title=Understanding and Responding to Climate Change
|publisher=Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, US National Academy of Sciences
|author=US National Research Council
|url=http://americasclimatechoices.org/climate_change_2008_final.pdf
|format=PDF
|page=2
}}
</ref> Human-induced warming of the climate is expected to continue throughout the 21st century and beyond.<ref name="2008 us nrc Understanding and Responding to Climate Change"/>

The [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] (IPCC, 2007) have produced a range of projections of what the future increase in global mean temperature might be.<ref name="2007 ipcc global warming projections">
{{cite book
|year=2007
|contribution=3. Projected climate change and its impacts
|title=Summary for Policymakers
|series=Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
|editor=Core Writing Team (eds.)
|publisher=Cambridge University Press
|author=IPCC
|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/spms3.html
|display-editors=etal}}
</ref>  The IPCC's projections are [[economics of climate change mitigation#Baselines|"baseline" projections]], meaning that they assume no future efforts are made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The IPCC projections cover the time period from the beginning of the 21st century to the end of the 21st century.<ref name="2007 ipcc global warming projections"/><ref>Temperatures are measured relative to the average global temperature averaged over the years 1980-1999, with the projected change averaged over 2090–2099.</ref>  The "likely" range (as assessed to have a greater than 66% probability of being correct, based on the IPCC's expert judgement) is a projected increase in global mean temperature over the 21st century of between 1.1 and 6.4&nbsp;°C.<ref name="2007 ipcc global warming projections"/>

The range in temperature projections partly reflects different projections of future greenhouse gas emissions.<ref name="2009 karl ipcc global warming projections">
{{cite book
 | year=2009
 | contribution=Global climate change
 | title=Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
 | editor1-last = Karl | editor1-first = T.R. | publisher=Cambridge University Press
 | location = 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10013-2473, USA
 | isbn=978-0-521-14407-0
 | url=http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/full-report/global-climate-change
|display-editors=etal}}
</ref>{{Rp|22–24|date=November 2012}}  Different projections contain different assumptions of future social and economic development (e.g., [[economic growth]], [[population projection|population level]], [[energy policy|energy policies]]), which in turn affects projections of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.<ref name="2009 karl ipcc global warming projections"/>{{Rp|22–24|date=November 2012}} The range also reflects uncertainty in the response of the climate system to past and future GHG emissions (measured by the [[climate sensitivity]]).<ref name="2009 karl ipcc global warming projections"/>{{Rp|22–24|date=November 2012}}

=== Chronology ===
{{See also|History of climate change science}}

'''1992''' The UN Conference on the Environment and Development is held in Rio de Janeiro. It results in the Framework Convention on Climate Change [http://www.unfccc.int/ ("FCCC" or "UNFCCC")] among other agreements.

'''1995''' Parties to the UNFCCC meet in Berlin (the 1st Conference of Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC) to outline specific targets on emissions.

'''1997''' In December the parties conclude the Kyoto Protocol in Kyoto, Japan, in which they agree to the broad outlines of emissions targets.

'''2002''' Russia and Canada ratify the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC bringing the treaty into effect on 16 February 2005.

'''2011''' Canada became the first signatory to announce its withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol.<ref>http://www.ec.gc.ca/Publications/default.asp?lang=En&n=EE4F06AE-1&xml=EE4F06AE-13EF-453B-B633-FCB3BAECEB4F&offset=3&toc=show Canadian government official archives</ref>

'''2012''' On 31 December 2012, the first commitment period under the Protocol expired.

===Article 2 of the UNFCCC===

{{Main article|United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change#Interpreting Article 2}}

Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).<ref>
{{citation
 | year=2011a
 | author=[[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] (UNFCCC)
 | title=Status of Ratification of the Convention
 | url=http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/status_of_ratification/items/2631.php
 | publisher=UNFCCC
 | location=UNFCCC Secretariat: [[Bonn]], [[Germany]]
}}. Most countries in the world are Parties to the [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] (UNFCCC), which has adopted the 2&nbsp;°C target. There are currently (as of 25 November 2011) 195 Parties (194 states and 1 regional economic integration organization (the European Union)) to the UNFCCC.
</ref>  Article 2 of the Convention states its ultimate objective, which is to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere "at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (i.e., human) interference with the climate system."<ref name="2001d ipcc article 2 of UNFCCC">
{{cite book
|year=2001d
|contribution=Question 1
|title=Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
|editor=Watson, R.T. |editor2=the Core Writing Team
|publisher=Cambridge University Press
|author=IPCC
|url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/vol4/english/017.htm
}}
</ref> The [[natural sciences|natural]], technical, and [[social sciences]] can provide information on decisions relating to this objective, e.g., the possible magnitude and rate of future climate changes.<ref name="2001d ipcc article 2 of UNFCCC"/> However, the IPCC has also concluded that the decision of what constitutes "dangerous" interference requires value judgements, which will vary between different regions of the world.<ref name="2001d ipcc article 2 of UNFCCC"/> Factors that might affect this decision include the local consequences of climate change impacts, the ability of a particular region to [[adaptation to global warming|adapt to climate change]] (adaptive capacity), and the ability of a region to [[climate change mitigation|reduce its GHG emissions]] (mitigative capacity).<ref name="2001d ipcc article 2 of UNFCCC"/>

==Objectives==

{{Multiple image
 |direction=vertical
 | align=right
 | image1= Major greenhouse gas trends.png
 | alt1=Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
 | image2= Stabilizing the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide at a constant level would require emissions to be effectively eliminated (vertical).png
 | alt2=Refer to caption
 | caption1=Kyoto is intended to cut [[Earth|global]] emissions of [[greenhouse gases]].
 | caption2=In order to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of {{chem|CO|2}}, emissions worldwide would need to be dramatically reduced from their present level.<ref>{{cite book
|year=2009
|contribution=BOX NT.1 Summary of Climate Change Basics
|title=Non-Technical Summary
|series=Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2: Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decision making. A Report by the U.S. [[Climate Change Science Program]] and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research
|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
|location=Washington D.C., USA.
|page=11
| last1 = Granger Morgan * | first1 = M. | quote = (* is Lead Author) | first2=H. | last2 = Dowlatabadi | first3 = M. | last3 = Henrion | first4 = D. | last4 = Keith | first5 = R. | last5 = Lempert | first6 = S. | last6 = McBride | first7 = M. | last7 = Small | first8 = T. | last8 = Wilbanks
|url=http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/saps/311
}}
</ref>
}}

The main goal of the Kyoto Protocol is to control emissions of the main anthropogenic (i.e., human-emitted) greenhouse gases (GHGs) in ways that reflect underlying national differences in GHG emissions, wealth, and capacity to make the reductions.<ref name="2004 grubb kyoto">
{{cite journal
 | last=Grubb|first=M.
 | year=2004
 | title=Kyoto and the Future of International Climate Change Responses: From Here to Where?
 | journal=International Review for Environmental Strategies
 | volume=5
 | issue=1
 | page=2 (PDF version)
 | url=http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/rstaff/grubb/publications/J37.pdf
 | format=PDF
}}
</ref>  The treaty follows the main principles agreed in the original 1992 UN Framework Convention.<ref name="2004 grubb kyoto"/>  According to the treaty, in 2012, Annex I Parties who have ratified the treaty must have fulfilled their obligations of greenhouse gas emissions limitations established for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period (2008–2012). These emissions limitation commitments are listed in Annex B of the Protocol.

The Kyoto Protocol's first round commitments are the first detailed step taken within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Gupta ''et al.'', 2007).<ref name=gupta/> The Protocol establishes a structure of rolling emission reduction commitment periods. It set a timetable starting in 2006 for negotiations to establish emission reduction commitments for a second commitment period (see [[Kyoto Protocol#Successor]] for details).<ref name="grubb commitments">{{harvnb|Grubb|Depledge|2001|p=269}}</ref> The first period emission reduction commitments expired on 31 December 2012.

The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would stop dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."<ref name="unfccc2005">{{cite web
| title=Article 2| work=The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.| quote=Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner|url=http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php | accessdate=15 November 2005 }}</ref> Even if Annex I Parties succeed in meeting their first-round commitments, much greater emission reductions will be required in future to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations.<ref name="grubb commitments"/><ref name="ipcc kyoto stabilization"/>

For each of the different anthropogenic GHGs, different levels of emissions reductions would be required to meet the objective of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations (see [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change#Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations]]).<ref name="2007 meehl stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs">
{{cite book
 | year=2007
 | contribution=FAQ 10.3 If Emissions of Greenhouse Gases are Reduced, How Quickly do Their Concentrations in the Atmosphere Decrease?
 | url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-10-3.html
 | last = Meehl | first = G. A. 
 | title=Global Climate Projections
 | series=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 | editor=Solomon, S. |display-editors=etal
 | publisher=Cambridge University Press
|display-authors=etal}}
</ref>  [[Carbon dioxide]] ({{chem|CO|2}}) is the most important anthropogenic GHG.<ref>
{{cite book
 | year=2007
 | contribution=Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change
 | url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-human-and.html
 | author=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
 | title=Summary for Policymakers
 | series=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC
 | editor=Solomon, S.
 | publisher=Cambridge University Press
|display-editors=etal}}
</ref>  Stabilizing the concentration of {{chem|CO|2}} in the atmosphere would ultimately require the effective elimination of anthropogenic {{chem|CO|2}} emissions.<ref name="2007 meehl stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs"/>

Some of the principal concepts of the Kyoto Protocol are:

*Binding commitments for the Annex I Parties. The main feature of the Protocol<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol overview">
{{citation
 | year=2011
 | author=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
 | title=Kyoto Protocol
 | publisher=UNFCCC
 | url=http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php
}}
</ref>  is that it established legally binding commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases for Annex I Parties.  The commitments were based on the Berlin Mandate, which was a part of UNFCCC negotiations leading up to the Protocol.<ref>
{{Citation
|date=August 1999 – August 2000
|title=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Technical paper: Tracing the Origins of the Kyoto Protocol: An Article-by-Article Textual History
|publisher=UNFCCC
|last=Depledge|first=J.
|url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/tp/tp0200.pdf
|format=PDF
|page=6
}}
</ref><ref name=liverman/>{{Rp|290|date=November 2012}}
*Implementation. In order to meet the objectives of the Protocol, Annex I Parties are required to prepare policies and measures for the reduction of greenhouse gases in their respective countries. In addition, they are required to increase the absorption of these gases and utilize all mechanisms available, such as joint implementation, the clean development mechanism and emissions trading, in order to be rewarded with credits that would allow more greenhouse gas emissions at home.
*Minimizing Impacts on Developing Countries by establishing an adaptation fund for climate change.
*Accounting, Reporting and Review in order to ensure the integrity of the Protocol.
*Compliance. Establishing a Compliance Committee to enforce compliance with the commitments under the Protocol.

==First commitment period: 2008–12==
Under the Kyoto Protocol, 38 [[industrialized countries]] and the [[European Community]] (the [[European Union]]-15, made up of 15 states at the time of the Kyoto negotiations) commit themselves to binding targets for GHG emissions.<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol overview"/>  The targets apply to the four greenhouse gases [[carbon dioxide]] ({{Chem|CO|2|}}), [[methane]] ({{chem|CH|4}}), [[nitrous oxide]] ({{chem|N|2|O}}), [[sulphur hexafluoride]] ({{chem|S|F|6}}), and two groups of gases, [[hydrofluorocarbon]]s (HFCs) and [[perfluorocarbon]]s (PFCs).<ref name="grubb kyoto gases">
{{harvnb|Grubb|2003|p=147}}
</ref> The six GHG are translated into [[Co2e|CO<sub>2</sub> equivalents]] in determining reductions in emissions.<ref>
The benchmark 1990 emission levels accepted by the [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|Conference of the parties]] of UNFCCC (decision 2/CP.3) were the values of "[[global warming potential]]" calculated for the [[IPCC Second Assessment Report]]. These figures are used for converting the various greenhouse gas emissions into comparable [[Co2e|carbon dioxide equivalents]] (CO<sub>2</sub>-eq) when computing overall sources and sinks. Source: {{cite web
 |title=Methodological issues related to the Kyoto protocol
 |url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop3/07a01.pdf#page=31
 |date=25 March 1998 |accessdate=13 February 2010
 |publisher=Report of the Conference of the Parties on its third session, held at Kyoto from 1 to 11 December 1997, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
}}
</ref> These reduction targets are in addition to the industrial gases, chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are dealt with under the 1987 [[Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer]].

Under the Protocol, only the Annex I Parties have committed themselves to national or joint reduction targets (formally called "quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives" (QELRO) – Article 4.1).<ref name="unfccc1997">
{{cite pressrelease
| url=http://unfccc.int/cop3/fccc/info/indust.htm
| title=Industrialized countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2%
| publisher=[[United Nations Environment Programme]]
| date=11 December 1997
| accessdate=6 August 2007
}}</ref>  Parties to the Kyoto Protocol not listed in Annex I of the Convention (the non-Annex I Parties) are mostly low-income developing countries,<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"/>{{Rp|4|date=November 2012}}  and may participate in the Kyoto Protocol through the Clean Development Mechanism (explained below).<ref name="grubb commitments"/>

The emissions limitations of Annex I Parties varies between different Parties.<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol targets">
{{citation
 | year=2011
 | author=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
 | title=Kyoto Protocol
 | publisher=UNFCCC
 | url=http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/3145.php
}}
</ref>  Some Parties have emissions limitations reduce below the base year level, some have limitations at the base year level (i.e., no permitted increase above the base year level), while others have limitations above the base year level.

Emission limits do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping.<ref name="shippingandaviation">
{{citation
 | last=Adam|first=David
 | title=UK to seek pact on shipping and aviation pollution at climate talks
 | work=The Guardian
 | date=2 December 2007
 | url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/dec/03/climatechange.greenpolitics 
}}
</ref> Although Belarus and Turkey are listed in the Convention's Annex I, they do not have emissions targets as they were not Annex I Parties when the Protocol was adopted.<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol targets"/>  Kazakhstan does not have a target, but has declared that it wishes to become an Annex I Party to the Convention.<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol targets"/>

{{hidden begin
 |title = Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol, their 2008-2012 commitments (% of base year) and 1990 emission levels (% of all Annex I countries)<ref>
{{citation
 | year=2011
 | author=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
 | title=Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
 | publisher=UNFCCC
 | url=http://unfccc.int/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/items/1678.php
}}
</ref><ref>
{{citation
 | date=15 November 2005
 | author=European Environment Agency (EEA)
 | title=Kyoto burden-sharing targets for EU-15 countries - EEA
 | publisher=EEA
 | url=http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/ds_resolveuid/41733CB9-4889-4CCC-B062-CA712286636F
}}
</ref>
}}
{|
|-
| style="width:25%; vertical-align:top;"|
[[Australia]] – 108% (2.1% of 1990 emissions) <br />
[[Austria]] –  87% <br />
[[Belarus]] – 95% (subject to acceptance by other parties)<br />
[[Belgium]] – 92.5% <br />
[[Bulgaria]] – 92% (0.6%) <br />
Canada – 94% (3.33%) <br />
[[Croatia]] – 95% () <br />
[[Czech Republic]] – 92% (1.24%) <br />
[[Denmark]] – 79% <br />
[[Estonia]] – 92% (0.28%) <br />
| style="width:25%; vertical-align:top;"|
[[Finland]] – 100% <br />
[[France]] – 100% <br />
[[Germany]] – 79% <br />
[[Greece]] – 125% <br />
[[Hungary]] – 94% (0.52%) <br />
[[Iceland]] – 110% (0.02%) <br />
[[Ireland]] – 113% <br />
[[Italy]] – 93.5% <br />
[[Japan]] – 94% (8.55%) <br />
[[Latvia]] – 92% (0.17%) <br />
| style="width:25%; vertical-align:top;"|
[[Liechtenstein]] – 92% (0.0015%) <br />
[[Lithuania]] – 92% () <br />
[[Luxembourg]] – 72% <br />
[[Netherlands]] – 94% <br />
[[New Zealand]] – 100% (0.19%) <br />
[[Norway]] – 101% (0.26%) <br />
[[Poland]] – 94% (3.02%) <br />
[[Portugal]] – 92% <br />
[[Romania]] – 92% (1.24%) <br />
| style="width:25%; vertical-align:top;"|
[[Russian Federation]] – 100% (17.4%) <br />
[[Slovakia]] – 92% (0.42%) <br />
[[Slovenia]] – 92% () <br />
Spain – 115% <br />
[[Sweden]] – 104% <br />
[[Switzerland]] – 92% (0.32%) <br />
[[Ukraine]] – 100% () <br />
[[United Kingdom]] – 87.5% <br />
[[United States of America]] – 93% (36.1%) (non-party)
|}
{{hidden end}}

For most Parties, 1990 is the base year for the national GHG inventory and the calculation of the assigned amount.<ref name="2008 unfccc kyoto protocol reference manual">
{{citation
 | year=2008
 | author=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
 | title=Kyoto Protocol Reference Manual On Accounting of Emissions and Assigned Amount
 | publisher=Climate Change Secretariat (UNFCCC)
 | location=Bonn, Germany
 | url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/08_unfccc_kp_ref_manual.pdf
 | format=PDF
 | page=55
 | isbn=92-9219-055-5
}}
</ref>  However, five Parties have an alternative base year:<ref name="2008 unfccc kyoto protocol reference manual"/>
* Bulgaria: 1988;
* Hungary: the average of the years 1985–87;
* Poland: 1988;
* Romania: 1989;
* Slovenia: 1986.

Annex I Parties can use a range of sophisticated "flexibility" mechanisms (see below) to meet their targets. Annex I Parties can achieve their targets by allocating reduced annual allowances to major operators within their borders, or by allowing these operators to exceed their allocations by offsetting any excess through a mechanism that is agreed by all the parties to the UNFCCC, such as by buying [[emissions trading|emission allowances]] from other operators which have excess emissions credits.

==Flexibility mechanisms==
{{See also|Economics of climate change mitigation#Kyoto Protocol}}

The Protocol defines three "[[flexibility mechanisms]]" that can be used by Annex I Parties in meeting their emission limitation commitments.<ref>
{{citation
 | chapter-url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/225.htm
 | title=Executive summary
 | chapter=6. Policies, Measures, and Instruments
 | last1 = Bashmakov | first1 = I. 
|display-authors=etal}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
</ref>{{Rp|402|date=November 2012}}  The flexibility mechanisms are International Emissions Trading (IET), the [[Clean Development Mechanism]] (CDM), and [[Joint Implementation]] (JI). IET allows Annex I Parties to "trade" their emissions ([[Assigned amount units|Assigned Amount Unit]]s, AAUs, or "allowances" for short).<ref>Clifford Chance LLP (2012). "Clean Development Mechanism: CDM and the UNFCC" http://a4id.org/sites/default/files/user/CDM%26UNFCCCcorrected.pdf . Advocates for International Development. Retrieved: 19 September 2013.</ref>

The economic basis for providing this flexibility is that the [[margin (economics)|marginal]] cost of reducing (or abating) emissions differs among countries.<ref name="toth 2001 flexibility mechanisms">
{{citation
 | url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/441.htm
 |title=10.4.4. Where Should the Response Take Place? The Relationship between Domestic Mitigation and the Use of International Mechanisms
 | chapter=10. Decision-making Frameworks
 | last1 = Toth | first1 = F. L. 
|display-authors=etal}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
</ref>{{Rp|660|date=November 2012}}<ref>
{{citation
 | url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/246.htm
 | title=6.3 International Policies, Measures, and Instruments
 | chapter=6. Policies, Measures, and Instruments
 | last1 = Bashmakov | first1 = I. 
|display-authors=etal}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
</ref> "Marginal cost" is the cost of abating the last tonne of {{chem|CO|2}}-eq for an Annex I/non-Annex I Party. At the time of the original Kyoto targets, studies suggested that  the flexibility mechanisms could reduce the overall ([[aggregate data|aggregate]]) cost of meeting the targets.<ref name="hourcade 2001 economic costs of flexibility mechanisms">
{{citation
 | url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/341.htm
 | title=8.3.1 International Emissions Quota Trading Regimes
 | chapter=8. Global, Regional, and National Costs and Ancillary Benefits of Mitigation
 | last1 = Hourcade | first1 = J.-C. 
|display-authors=etal}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
</ref>  Studies also showed that national losses in Annex I [[gross domestic product]] (GDP) could be reduced by use of the flexibility mechanisms.<ref name="hourcade 2001 economic costs of flexibility mechanisms"/>

The CDM and JI are called "project-based mechanisms," in that they generate emission reductions from projects. The difference between IET and the project-based mechanisms is that IET is based on the setting of a quantitative restriction of emissions, while the CDM and JI are based on the idea of "production" of emission reductions.<ref name="toth 2001 flexibility mechanisms"/>  The CDM is designed to encourage production of emission reductions in non-Annex I Parties, while JI encourages production of emission reductions in Annex I Parties.

The production of emission reductions generated by the CDM and JI can be used by Annex I Parties in meeting their emission limitation commitments.<ref>
{{citation
 | url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/247.htm
 | title=6.3.2 Project-based Mechanisms (Joint Implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism)
 | chapter=6. Policies, Measures, and Instruments
 | last1 = Bashmakov | first1 = I. 
|display-authors=etal}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
</ref> The emission reductions produced by the CDM and JI are both measured against a hypothetical [[Economics of climate change mitigation#Baselines|baseline]] of emissions that would have occurred in the absence of a particular emission reduction project. The emission reductions produced by the CDM are called [[Certified Emission Reduction]]s (CERs); reductions produced by JI are called [[Emission Reduction Unit]]s (ERUs). The reductions are called "[[carbon credit|credits]]" because they are emission reductions credited against a hypothetical baseline of emissions.{{Citation needed|date=July 2010}}

Each Annex I country is required to submit an annual report of inventories of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from sources and removals from sinks under UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. These countries nominate a person (called a "designated national authority") to create and manage its [[greenhouse gas inventory]]. Virtually all of the non-Annex I countries have also established a designated national authority to manage their Kyoto obligations, specifically the "CDM process". This determines which GHG projects they wish to propose for accreditation by the CDM Executive Board.

===International Emissions Trading===
{{Main article|Emissions trading|Carbon emission trading}}

A number of emissions trading schemes (ETS) have been, or are planned to be, implemented.<ref name=hood>
{{cite book
 |date=November 2010
 | last = Hood | first = C.
 | chapter=5. Current and proposed emissions trading systems
 | title=Review Existing and Proposed Emissions Trading Systems: Information paper
 | chapter-url=http://www.iea.org/papers/2010/ets_paper2010.pdf
 | publisher=International Energy Agency (IEA)
 | location=Head of Publications Service, 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France
 | accessdate=7 July 2011}}
</ref>{{Rp|19–26|date=November 2012}}

====Asia====

*''Japan:'' emissions trading in Tokyo started in 2010. This scheme is run by the [[Tokyo Metropolitan Government]].<ref name=hood/>{{Rp|24|date=November 2012}}

====Europe====

*''[[European Union]]:'' the [[European Union Emission Trading Scheme]] (EU ETS), which started in 2005. This is run by the [[European Commission]].<ref name=hood/>{{Rp|20|date=November 2012}}
*''[[Norway]]'': domestic emissions trading in Norway started in 2005.<ref name=hood/>{{Rp|21|date=November 2012}} This was run by the Norwegian Government, which is now a participant in the EU ETS.
*''[[Switzerland]]'': the Swiss ETS, which runs from 2008 to 2012, to coincide with the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period.<ref name=hood/>{{Rp|22|date=November 2012}}
*''United Kingdom:''
**the [[UK Emissions Trading Scheme]], which ran from 2002–06. This was a scheme run by the UK Government, which is now a participant in the EU ETS.<ref name=hood/>{{Rp|19|date=November 2012}}
**the UK [[CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme]], which started in 2010, and is run by the UK Government.<ref name=hood/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}}

====North America====

*''Canada:'' emissions trading in [[Alberta]], Canada, which started in 2007. This is run by the [[Government of Alberta]].<ref name=hood/>{{Rp|22|date=November 2012}}
*''United States:''
**the [[Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative]] (RGGI), which started in 2009. This scheme caps emissions from power generation in ten north-eastern US states (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont).<ref name=hood/>{{Rp|24|date=November 2012}}
**emissions trading in California, which started in 2013.<ref name=hood/>{{Rp|26|date=November 2012}}
*the [[Western Climate Initiative]] (WCI), which is planned to start in 2012. This is a collective ETS agreed between 11 US states and [[Canadian province]]s.<ref name=hood/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}}

====Oceania====

*''Australia:'' the [[New South Wales Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme|New South Wales Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scheme]] (NSW), which started in 2003. This scheme is run by the Australian [[State of New South Wales]], and has now joined the Alfa Climate Stabilization (ACS).<ref name=hood/>{{Rp|19|date=November 2012}}
*''New Zealand'': the [[New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme]], which started in 2008.<ref name=hood/>{{Rp|23|date=November 2012}}

====Intergovernmental Emissions Trading====

The design of the [[European Union Emissions Trading Scheme]] (EU ETS) implicitly allows for trade of national Kyoto obligations to occur between participating countries (Carbon Trust, 2009, p.&nbsp;24).<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market"/> Carbon Trust (2009, pp.&nbsp;24–25) found that other than the trading that occurs as part of the EU ETS, no intergovernmental emissions trading had taken place.<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market"/>

One of the environmental problems with IET is the large surplus of allowances that are available. Russia, Ukraine, and the new EU-12 member states (the Kyoto Parties Annex I Economies-in-Transition, abbreviated "IET": Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine)<ref>
{{citation
|title=Development and Climate Change: A Strategic Framework for the World Bank Group: Technical Report
|year=2008
|author=World Bank
|url=http://beta.worldbank.org/overview/strategic-framework-development-and-climate-change
|publisher=The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. |location=Washington, DC, USA
}}
</ref>{{Rp|59|date=November 2012}} have a surplus of allowances, while many [[OECD]] countries have a deficit.<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market"/>{{Rp|24|date=November 2012}}  Some of the EITs with a surplus regard it as potential compensation for the trauma of their economic restructuring.<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}} When the Kyoto treaty was negotiated, it was recognized that emissions targets for the EITs might lead to them having an excess number of allowances.<ref>
{{cite book
|year=2001
|contribution=8.3.1.1 "Where Flexibility"
|title=8. Global, Regional, and National Costs and Ancillary Benefits of Mitigation
 | page=538
|series=Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. A Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|editor=B. Metz |display-editors=etal
|publisher=Cambridge University Press
| last1 = Hourcade | first1 = J.-C. 
|url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/341.htm
|display-authors=etal}}
</ref>  This excess of allowances were viewed by the EITs as "headroom" to grow their economies.<ref>
{{citation
 | year=2003
 | title=Green Investment Schemes: Options and Issues
 | last1 = Blyth | first1 = W. | first2 = R. | last2 = Baron
 | page=11
 | publisher=Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Environment Directorate and International Energy Agency (IEA)
 | location=Paris, France
 | url=http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/48/54/19842798.pdf
}} OECD reference: COM/ENV/EPOC/IEA/SLT(2003)9
</ref>  The surplus has, however, also been referred to by some as "hot air," a term which Russia (a country with an estimated surplus of 3.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent allowances) views as "quite offensive."<ref>
{{citation
 | date=30 June 2008
 | title=Energy and Climate Change in Russia (note requested by the European Parliament's temporary committee on Climate Change, Policy Department Economy and Science, DG Internal Policies, European Parliament)
 | last1 = Chiavari | first1 = J. | first2 = M. | last2 = Pallemaerts
 | page=11
 | publisher=Institute for European Environmental Policy
 | location=Brussels, Belgium
 | url=http://www.ieep.eu/assets/433/ecc_russia.pdf
}}
</ref>

OECD countries with a deficit could meet their Kyoto commitments by buying allowances from transition countries with a surplus. Unless other commitments were made to reduce the total surplus in allowances, such trade would not actually result in emissions being reduced<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}} (see also the section below on the [[Kyoto Protocol#Green Investment Scheme|Green Investment Scheme]]).

====Green Investment Scheme====

A Green Investment Scheme (GIS) refers to a plan for achieving environmental benefits from trading surplus allowances (AAUs) under the Kyoto Protocol.<ref name="Definition of Green Investment Scheme (GIS)">
{{citation
 | year=2011
 | title=Carbon Finance - Glossary of Terms: Definition of "Green Investment Scheme" (GIS)
 | author=Carbon Finance at the World Bank
 | publisher=World Bank Carbon Finance Unit (CFU)
 | location=Washington, D.C., U.S.A.
 | url=http://go.worldbank.org/HZGVW3QN20
 | accessdate=15 December 2011
}}
</ref> The Green Investment Scheme (GIS), a mechanism in the framework of International Emissions Trading (IET), is designed to achieve greater flexibility in reaching the targets of the Kyoto Protocol while preserving environmental integrity of IET. However, using the GIS is not required under the Kyoto Protocol, and there is no official definition of the term.<ref name="Definition of Green Investment Scheme (GIS)"/>

Under the GIS a Party to the Protocol expecting that the development of its economy will not exhaust its Kyoto quota, can sell the excess of its Kyoto quota units (AAUs) to another Party. The proceeds from the AAU sales should be "greened", i.e. channeled to the development and implementation of the projects either acquiring the greenhouse gases emission reductions (hard greening) or building up the necessary framework for this process (soft greening).<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}}

====Trade in AAUs====

Latvia was one of the front-runners of GISs. World Bank (2011)<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus">
{{citation
 | year=2011
 | author=World Bank
 | title=State and Trends of the Carbon Market Report 2011
 | url=http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCARBONFINANCE/Resources/State_and_Trends_Updated_June_2011.pdf
 | publisher=World Bank Environment Department, Carbon Finance Unit
 | location=Washington, DC, USA
}}
</ref>{{Rp|53|date=November 2012}}  reported that Latvia has stopped offering AAU sales because of low AAU prices. In 2010, Estonia was the preferred source for AAU buyers, followed by the Czech Republic and Poland.<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus"/>{{Rp|53|date=November 2012}}

Japan's national policy to meet their Kyoto target includes the purchase of AAUs sold under GISs.<ref>
{{citation
 | date=28 March 2008
 | author=Government of Japan
 | title=Kyoto Protocol Target Achievement Plan (Provisional Translation)
 | url=http://www.env.go.jp/en/earth/cc/kptap.pdf
 | publisher=Ministry of the Environment, Government of Japan
 | location=Tokyo, Japan
 | pages=81–82
}}
</ref>  In 2010, Japan and Japanese firms were the main buyers of AAUs.<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus"/>{{Rp|53|date=November 2012}}  In terms of the international carbon market, trade in AAUs are a small proportion of overall market value.<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus"/>{{Rp|9|date=November 2012}} In 2010, 97% of trade in the international carbon market was driven by the [[European Union Emission Trading Scheme]] (EU ETS).<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus"/>{{Rp|9|date=November 2012}}  However, firms regulated under the EU ETS are unable to use AAUs in meeting their emissions caps.<ref>
{{cite book
 | date=September 2008
 | last1 = Ramming | first1 = I. 
 | editor=Carnahan, K.
 | chapter=34. AAU Trading and the Impact on Kyoto and EU Emissions Trading. Before the Flood or Storm in a Tea-cup?
 | title=Greenhouse Gas Market Report 2008
 | publisher=International Emissions Trading Association (IETA)
 | location=Geneva, Switzerland
 | url=http://www.ieta.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=71%3Aghg-market-report-2008&catid=27%3Aarchived-reports&Itemid=93
 | page=141
|display-authors=etal}} This document can also be downloaded as a [http://www.carbontradefinance.com/articles/IETA_GHG_Market_Report_2008%20AAU%20Trading.pdf PDF file]
</ref>

====Clean Development Mechanism====

Between 2001, which was the first year [[Clean Development Mechanism]] (CDM) projects could be registered, and 2012, the end of the first Kyoto commitment period, the CDM is expected to produce some 1.5&nbsp;billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO<sub>2</sub>e) in emission reductions.<ref name=wdr>{{cite web
|year=2010
|author=World Bank
|title=World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change
|publisher=The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433
|url=http://go.worldbank.org/UVZ0HYFGG0
|accessdate=6 April 2010}}</ref> Most of these reductions are through [[renewable energy commercialisation]], [[efficient energy use|energy efficiency]], and fuel switching (World Bank, 2010, p.&nbsp;262). By 2012, the largest potential for production of CERs are estimated in [[China]] (52% of total CERs) and India (16%). CERs produced in Latin America and the Caribbean make up 15% of the potential total, with Brazil as the largest producer in the region (7%).

====Joint Implementation====

The formal crediting period for [[Joint Implementation]] (JI) was aligned with the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, and did not start until January 2008 (Carbon Trust, 2009, p.&nbsp;20).<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market">{{cite web
|date=March 2009
|title=Global Carbon Mechanisms: Emerging lessons and implications (CTC748)
|author=Carbon Trust
|url=http://www.carbontrust.com/resources/reports/advice/global-carbon-mechanisms
|publisher=Carbon Trust website
|accessdate=31 March 2010}}</ref> In November 2008, only 22 JI projects had been officially approved and registered. The total projected emission savings from JI by 2012 are about one tenth that of the CDM. Russia accounts for about two-thirds of these savings, with the remainder divided up roughly equally between the Ukraine and the EU's New Member States. Emission savings include cuts in methane, HFC, and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions.

==Stabilization of GHG concentrations==

As noted [[Kyoto Protocol#Objectives|earlier on]], the first-round Kyoto emissions limitation commitments are not sufficient to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of GHGs. Stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations will require further emissions reductions after the end of the first-round Kyoto commitment period in 2012.<ref name="grubb commitments"/><ref name="ipcc kyoto stabilization">
{{citation
 | chapter-url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/vol4/english/058.htm 7.32
 | title=Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations would depend upon emissions reductions beyond those agreed to in the Kyoto Protocol
 | chapter=Question 7
}}
, p.122, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR SYR|2001}}
</ref>

===Background===

{{Multiple image
 |direction=vertical
 | align=right
 | image1=Indicative probabilities of exceeding various increases in global mean temperature (relative to the pre-industrial level) for stabilization levels of 400, 450, 500, 550, 650 and 750 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent.png
 | alt1=Refer to caption
 | image2=Projected global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil and other industrial sources between 2000-2100 using MiniCAM emissions scenarios from Clarke et al 2007.png
 | alt2=Refer to caption
 | caption1=Indicative probabilities of exceeding various increases in global mean temperature for different stabilization levels of atmospheric GHG concentrations.<ref name="global warming and stabilization targets">
{{citation
 | url=http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Chapter_8_The_Challenge_of_Stabilisation.pdf | title=Box 8.1 Likelihood of exceeding a temperature increase at equilibrium
 | chapter= Chapter 8 The challenge of stabilisation
 | format=PDF
 | page=195
}}, in {{harvnb|Stern|2006}}
</ref>
 | caption2=Different targets for stabilization require different levels of cuts in emissions over time.<ref name="emission reductions and timing">
{{citation
 | last1 = Fisher | first1 = B. 
 | chapter=Chapter 3: Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context
 | url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch3s3-3-5-1.html
 | title=3.3.5.1 Emission reductions and timing
|display-authors=etal}}
, in {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}
</ref> Lower stabilization targets require global emissions to be reduced more sharply in the near-term.<ref name="emission reductions and timing"/>
}}

Analysts have developed [[climate change scenario|scenarios]] of future changes in GHG emissions that lead to a stabilization in the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs.<ref>
{{citation
 | last1 = Fisher | first1 = B. 
 | chapter=Chapter 3: Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context
 | url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch3s3-3-2.html
 | title=3.3.2 Definition of a stabilization target
|display-authors=etal}}
, in {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}
</ref>  Climate models suggest that lower stabilization levels are associated with lower magnitudes of future global warming, while higher stabilization levels are associated with higher magnitudes of future global warming (see figure opposite).<ref name="global warming and stabilization targets"/>

To achieve stabilization, global GHG emissions must peak, then decline.<ref name="emissions peak and decline">
{{citation
 | chapter=Synthesis report
 | url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains5-4.html
 | title=5.4 Emission trajectories for stabilisation
}}
, in {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 SYR|2007}}
</ref>  The lower the desired stabilization level, the sooner this peak and decline must occur (see figure opposite).<ref name="emissions peak and decline"/> For a given stabilization level, larger emissions reductions in the near term allow for less stringent emissions reductions later on.<ref name="near term emissions reductions">
{{citation
 | url=http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Chapter_8_The_Challenge_of_Stabilisation.pdf 
 | chapter= Chapter 8 The challenge of stabilisation
 | title=Sec 8.5 Pathways to stabilisation
}}, in {{harvnb|Stern|2006|p=199}}
</ref> On the other hand, less stringent near term emissions reductions would, for a given stabilization level, require more stringent emissions reductions later on.<ref name="near term emissions reductions"/>

The first period Kyoto emissions limitations can be viewed as a first-step towards achieving atmospheric stabilization of GHGs.<ref name=gupta/> In this sense, the first period Kyoto commitments may affect what future atmospheric stabilization level can be achieved.<ref>
{{citation
 | last = Höhne | first = N.
 | title=Impact of the Kyoto Protocol on Stabilization of Carbon Dioxide Concentration
 | publisher=ECOFYS energy & environment
 | location=Cologne, Germany
 | url=http://stabilisation.metoffice.com/posters/Hohne_Niklas.pdf
}}
</ref>

===Relation to temperature targets===

At the [[2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference|16th Conference of the Parties]] held in 2010, Parties to the UNFCCC agreed that future global warming should be limited [[2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference#Outcome|below 2°C]] relative to the pre-industrial temperature level.<ref>
{{citation
 | year=2011
 | author=[[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] (UNFCCC)
 | title=Conference of the Parties - Sixteenth Session: Decision 1/CP.16: The Cancun Agreements: Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (English): Paragraph 4
 | publisher=UNFCCC Secretariat
 | location=[[Bonn]], [[Germany]]
 | page=3
 | url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf#page=2
 | format=PDF
}}
</ref>  One of the stabilization levels discussed in relation to this temperature target is to hold atmospheric concentrations of GHGs at 450 [[parts per million]] (ppm) {{chem|CO|2}}- eq.<ref>
{{citation
 | year=2010
 | title=[[World Energy Outlook]] 2010
 | chapter=13. Energy and the ultimate climate change target
 | publisher=IEA
 | location=Paris, France
 | author=[[International Energy Agency]] (IEA)
 | isbn=978-92-64-08624-1
 | chapter-url=http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weo2010.pdf
 | page=380
}}
</ref>  Stabilization at 450&nbsp;ppm could be associated with a 26 to 78% risk of exceeding the 2&nbsp;°C target.<ref>
{{citation
 | date=February 2010
 | title=Working Paper: Comparability of Annex I Emission Reduction Pledges
 | last1 = Levin | first1 = K. | first2 = R. | last2 = Bradley
 | publisher=[[World Resources Institute]]
 | location=Washington DC, USA
 | page=16
 | url=http://pdf.wri.org/working_papers/comparability_of_annex1_emission_reduction_pledges_2010-02-01.pdf
}}
</ref>

Scenarios assessed by Gupta ''et al.'' (2007)<ref name="450ppm scenarios">
{{citation
 | last1 = Gupta | first1 = S. 
 | chapter=Chapter 13: Policies, instruments, and co-operative arrangements
 | url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-3-3-3.html
 | title=Box 13.7 The range of the difference between emissions in 1990 and emission allowances in 2020/2050 for various GHG concentration levels for Annex I and non-Annex I countries as a group
|display-authors=etal}}
, in {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}
</ref> suggest that Annex I emissions would need to be 25% to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020, and 80% to 95% below 1990 levels by 2050. The only Annex I Parties to have made voluntary pledges in line with this are Japan (25% below 1990 levels by 2020) and Norway (30-40% below 1990 levels by 2020).<ref>
{{citation
 | date=July 2011
 | last1 = King | first1 = D. 
 | chapter=Copenhagen and Cancun
 | title=International climate change negotiations: Key lessons and next steps
 | publisher=Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford
 | location=Oxford, UK
 | page=14
 | doi=10.4210/ssee.pbs.2011.0003
 | url=http://edition2a.intellimag.com/?id=ssee-july2011
|display-authors=etal}} PDF version is also [http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Climate-Negotiations-report_Final.pdf available]
</ref>

Gupta ''et al.'' (2007)<ref name="450ppm scenarios"/> also looked at what 450&nbsp;ppm scenarios projected for non-Annex I Parties. Projections indicated that by 2020, non-Annex I emissions in several regions ([[Latin America]], the [[Middle East]], [[East Asia]], and [[planned economy|centrally planned]] [[Asia]]) would need to be substantially reduced below [[Economics of climate change mitigation#Baselines|"business-as-usual"]].<ref name="450ppm scenarios"/> "Business-as-usual" are projected non-Annex I emissions in the absence of any new policies to control emissions. Projections indicated that by 2050, emissions in all non-Annex I regions would need to be substantially reduced below "business-as-usual".<ref name="450ppm scenarios"/>

==Details of the agreement==

The agreement is a protocol to the [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] (UNFCCC) adopted at the [[Earth Summit]] in [[Rio de Janeiro]] in 1992, which did not set any legally binding limitations on emissions or enforcement mechanisms. Only Parties to the UNFCCC can become Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted at the third session of the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 3) in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan.

National emission targets specified in the Kyoto Protocol exclude international aviation and shipping. Kyoto Parties can use [[land use]], land use change, and [[forestry]] (LULUCF) in meeting their targets.<ref name="Dessai 2001 3">{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=3}}</ref>  LULUCF activities are also called "sink" activities. Changes in sinks and land use can have an effect on the climate,<ref>
{{citation
 | url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/annexessglossary-j-p.html
 | title=Glossary: Land use and Land-use change
 | chapter=Annex II
 |editor=Baede, A.P.M.
}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 SYR|2007}}
</ref> and indeed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry estimates that since 1750 a third of global warming has been caused by land use change.<ref>Robert T. Watson, Ian R. Noble, Bert Bolin, N. H. Ravindranath, David J. Verardo and David J. Dokken (editors), 2000, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, Cambridge University Press, UK</ref> Particular criteria apply to the definition of forestry under the Kyoto Protocol.

[[Forest management]], [[farm|cropland]] management, [[grazing]] land management, and [[revegetation]] are all eligible LULUCF activities under the Protocol.<ref name="forest management">
{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=9}}
</ref>  Annex I Parties use of forest management in meeting their targets is capped.<ref name="forest management"/>

===Negotiations===

{{See also|Views on the Kyoto Protocol#Commentaries on negotiations}}

Article 4.2 of the UNFCCC commits industrialized countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing emissions.<ref name="grubb original unfccc target">
{{harvnb|Grubb|2003|p=144}}
</ref> The initial aim was for industrialized countries to stabilize their emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000.<ref name="grubb original unfccc target"/> The failure of key industrialized countries to move in this direction was a principal reason why Kyoto moved to binding commitments.<ref name="grubb original unfccc target"/>

At the first UNFCCC Conference of the Parties in Berlin, the [[Group of 77|G77]] was able to push for a mandate (the "Berlin mandate") where it was recognized that:<ref name="liverman berlin mandate">
{{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}
</ref>
*developed nations had contributed most to the then-current concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere (see [[Greenhouse gas#Cumulative and historical emissions]]).
*developing country [[Greenhouse gas#Regional and national attribution of emissions|emissions per-capita]] (i.e., average emissions per head of population)<ref>
{{citation
 | title=Table A1: Energy-related emissions: Indicator: per capita (metric tons)
 | chapter=Part II: Selected Development Indicators
 | chapter-url=http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDRS/Resources/477365-1327504426766/8389626-1327510418796/Statistical-Annex.pdf
}}, in {{harvnb|World Bank|2010|p=370}}
</ref> were still relatively low.
*and that the share of global emissions from developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.
During negotiations, the G-77 represented 133 developing countries. China was not a member of the group but an associate.<ref>
{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=4}}
</ref> It has since become a member.<ref>
{{harvnb|G-77|2011}}
</ref>

The Berlin mandate was recognized in the Kyoto Protocol in that developing countries were not subject to emission reduction commitments in the first Kyoto commitment period.<ref name="liverman berlin mandate"/> However, the large potential for growth in developing country emissions made negotiations on this issue tense.<ref name="grubb developing country emissions">
{{harvnb|Grubb|2003|pp=145–146}}
</ref> In the final agreement, the Clean Development Mechanism was designed to limit emissions in developing countries, but in such a way that developing countries do not bear the costs for limiting emissions.<ref name="grubb developing country emissions"/> The general assumption was that developing countries would face quantitative commitments in later commitment periods, and at the same time, developed countries would meet their first round commitments.<ref name="grubb developing country emissions"/>

====Emissions cuts====

[[Views on the Kyoto Protocol#Commentaries on negotiations]] contains a list of the emissions cuts that were proposed by UNFCCC Parties during negotiations. The G77 and China were in favour of strong uniform emission cuts across the developed world.<ref name="liverman negotiations">
{{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=291}}
</ref> The US originally proposed for the second round of negotiations on Kyoto commitments to follow the negotiations of the first.<ref name="grubb second round negotiations">
{{harvnb|Grubb|2003|p=148}}
</ref> In the end, negotiations on the second period were set to open no later than 2005.<ref name="grubb second round negotiations"/> Countries over-achieving in their first period commitments can "bank" their unused allowances for use in the subsequent period.<ref name="grubb second round negotiations"/>

The EU initially argued for only three GHGs to be included – {{chem|CO|2}}, {{chem|CH|4}}, and {{chem|N|2|O}} – with other gases such as HFCs regulated separately.<ref name="liverman negotiations"/> The EU also wanted to have a "bubble" commitment, whereby it could make a collective commitment that allowed some EU members to increase their emissions, while others cut theirs.<ref name="liverman negotiations"/>

The most vulnerable nations – the [[Alliance of Small Island States]] (AOSIS) – pushed for deep uniform cuts by developed nations, with the goal of having emissions reduced to the greatest possible extent.<ref name="liverman negotiations"/> Countries that had supported differentiation of targets had different ideas as to how it should be calculated, and many different indicators were proposed.<ref name="grubb differentiation"/> Two examples include differentiation of targets based on [[gross domestic product]] (GDP), and differentiation based on [[energy intensity]] (energy use per unit of economic output).<ref name="grubb differentiation">
{{harvnb|Grubb|2003|p=151}}
</ref>

The final targets negotiated in the Protocol are the result of last minute political compromises.<ref name="liverman negotiations"/> The targets closely match those decided by Argentinian Raul Estrada, the [[diplomat]] who chaired the negotiations.<ref>
{{harvnb|Depledge|2000|p=46}}
</ref>  The numbers given to each Party by Chairman Estrada were based on targets already pledged by Parties, information received on latest negotiating positions, and the goal of achieving the strongest possible environmental outcome.<ref>
{{harvnb|Depledge|2000|p=44}}
</ref> The final targets are weaker than those proposed by some Parties, e.g., the [[Alliance of Small Island States]] and the G-77 and China, but stronger than the targets proposed by others, e.g., Canada and the United States.<ref>
{{harvnb|Depledge|2000|p=45}}
</ref>

===Financial commitments===

The Protocol also reaffirms the principle that developed countries have to pay billions of dollars, and supply technology to other countries for climate-related studies and projects. The principle was originally agreed in [[UNFCCC]]. One such project is [[The Adaptation Fund]]"<ref>http://www.adaptation-fund.org/</ref>", that has been established by the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to finance concrete adaptation projects and programmes in developing countries that are Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.

===Implementational provisions===
The protocol left several issues open to be decided later by the sixth Conference of Parties [[United Nations Climate Change conference#2000: COP 6, The Hague, Netherlands|COP6]] of the UNFCCC, which attempted to resolve these issues at its meeting in [[the Hague]] in late 2000, but it was unable to reach an agreement due to disputes between the European Union (who favoured a tougher implementation) and the United States, Canada, Japan and Australia (who wanted the agreement to be less demanding and more flexible).

In 2001, a continuation of the previous meeting (COP6bis) was held in [[Bonn]] where the required decisions were adopted. After some concessions, the supporters of the protocol (led by the [[European Union]]) managed to get the agreement of Japan and [[Russia]] by allowing more use of [[CO2 sink|carbon dioxide sinks]].

[[United Nations Climate Change conference#2001: COP 7, Marrakech, Morocco|COP7]] was held from 29 October 2001 through 9 November 2001 in [[Marrakech]] to establish the final details of the protocol.

The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP1) was held in [[Montreal]] from 28 November to 9 December 2005, along with the 11th conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP11). See [[United Nations Climate Change Conference]].

During COP13 in Bali, 36 developed [[Contact Group]] countries (plus the EU as a party in the [[European Union]]) agreed to a 10% emissions increase for [[Iceland]]; but, since the EU's member states each have individual obligations,<ref>{{cite web | title=The Kyoto protocol – A brief summary | work=European Commission | url=http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/kyoto.htm | accessdate=19 April 2007 }}</ref> much larger increases (up to 27%) are allowed for some of the less developed EU countries (see below [[Kyoto Protocol#Increase in greenhouse gas emission since 1990]]).<ref>{{cite web|url=http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/background/items/3145.php |title=Kyoto Protocol |publisher=UNFCCC |date=14 May 2008 |accessdate=21 May 2009}}</ref> Reduction limitations expired in 2013.

===Mechanism of compliance===

The protocol defines a mechanism of "compliance" as a "monitoring compliance with the commitments and penalties for non-compliance."<ref>{{cite web
|title=Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change
|first= S |last=Maljean-Dubois,
|work=Synthèse, n° 01, 2007
|publisher=Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations
|url=http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Collections/Syntheses/Compliance-with-the-Kyoto-Protocol-on-Climate-Change}}</ref> According to Grubb (2003),<ref name="grubb compliance">
{{harvnb|Grubb|2003|p=157}}
</ref> the explicit consequences of non-compliance of the treaty are weak compared to domestic law.<ref name="grubb compliance"/> Yet, the compliance section of the treaty was highly contested in the Marrakesh Accords.<ref name="grubb compliance"/>

===Enforcement===

If the enforcement branch determines that an Annex I country is not in compliance with its emissions limitation, then that country is required to make up the difference during the second commitment period plus an additional 30%.  In addition, that country will be suspended from making transfers under an emissions trading program.<ref>
{{cite web
| url=http://unfccc.int/kyoto_mechanisms/compliance/introduction/items/3024.php
| title=An Introduction to the Kyoto Protocol Compliance Mechanism
| publisher=UNFCC
| accessdate=30 October 2006
}}</ref>

==Ratification process==

The Protocol was adopted by [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|COP 3]] of UNFCCC on 11 December 1997 in [[Kyoto]], [[Japan]]. It was opened on 16 March 1998 for signature during one year by parties to [[UNFCCC]], when it was signed Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, the Maldives, Samoa, St. Lucia and Switzerland. At the end of the signature period, 82 countries and the [[European Community]] had signed. [[Ratification]] (which is required to become a party to the Protocol) started on 17 September with ratification of Fiji. Countries that did not sign acceded to the convention, which has the same legal effect.<ref name=parties/>

Article 25 of the Protocol specifies that the Protocol enters into force "on the ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in [[Annex I]] which accounted in total for at least 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the [[Annex I]] countries, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession."<ref>{{cite web|title=The Kyoto Protocol full text (PDF)|url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf|publisher=UNFCC Homepage}}</ref>

The EU and its Member States ratified the Protocol in May 2002.<ref>{{cite press release |url=http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/02/794&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en |title=European Union ratifies the Kyoto Protocol |publisher=European Union|date=31 May 2002 |accessdate=13 February 2010 }}</ref> Of the two conditions, the "55 parties" clause was reached on 23 May 2002 when [[Iceland]] ratified the Protocol.<ref name=parties>{{cite web|title=Status of ratification|url=http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.php|publisher=UNFCC Homepage|accessdate=5 June 2012}}</ref> The ratification by [[Russia]] on 18 November 2004 satisfied the "55%" clause and brought the treaty into force, effective 16 February 2005, after the required lapse of 90 days.<ref>{{cite web|last=West|first=Larry|title=What is the Kyoto Protocol|url=http://environment.about.com/od/kyotoprotocol/i/kyotoprotocol.htm|publisher=About.com (Part of NYT)|accessdate=5 June 2012}}</ref>

As of May 2013, [[List of Kyoto Protocol signatories|191 countries]] and one regional economic organization (the [[European Economic Community|EC]]) have ratified the agreement, representing over 61.6% of the 1990 emissions from [[Annex I]] countries.<ref name = "Kyoto-PDF-unfccc">{{cite web | title=Kyoto Protocol: Status of Ratification | url=http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/application/pdf/kp_ratification.pdf | date=14 January 2009 | accessdate=6 May 2009 | publisher=[[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] |format=PDF}}</ref> One of the 191 ratifying states—Canada—has denounced the protocol.

{{hidden begin
|title      = Convention Parties
|titlestyle = text-align:left;
|bodystyle  = text-align:left;
}}
{|
|-
| style="width:25%; vertical-align:top;"|
[[Afghanistan]] <br />
[[Albania]] <br />
[[Algeria]] <br />
[[Angola]] <br />
[[Antigua and Barbuda]] <br />
[[Argentina]] <br />
[[Armenia]] <br />
Australia <br />
[[Austria]] <br />
[[Azerbaijan]] <br />
[[Bahamas]] <br />
[[Bahrain]] <br />
[[Bangladesh]] <br />
[[Barbados]] <br />
[[Belarus]] <br />
[[Belgium]] <br />
[[Belize]] <br />
[[Benin]] <br />
[[Bhutan]] <br />
[[Bolivia]] <br />
[[Bosnia and Herzegovina]] <br />
[[Botswana]] <br />
[[Brazil]] <br />
[[Brunei]] <br />
[[Bulgaria]] <br />
[[Burkina Faso]] <br />
[[Myanmar]] <br />
[[Burundi]] <br />
[[Cambodia]] <br />
[[Cameroon]] <br />
Canada <br />
[[Cape Verde]] <br />
[[Central African Republic]] <br />
[[Chad]] <br />
[[Chile]] <br />
China <br />
[[Colombia]] <br />
[[Comoros]] <br />
[[Democratic Republic of the Congo]] <br />
[[Republic of the Congo]] <br />
[[Cook Islands]] <br />
[[Costa Rica]] <br />
[[Ivory Coast]] <br />
[[Croatia]] <br />
[[Cuba]] <br />
[[Cyprus]] <br />
[[Czech Republic]] <br />
[[Denmark]] <br />
[[Djibouti]] <br />
[[Dominica]] <br />
| style="width:25%; vertical-align:top;"|
[[Dominican Republic]] <br />
[[Ecuador]] <br />
[[Egypt]] <br />
[[El Salvador]] <br />
[[Equatorial Guinea]] <br />
[[Eritrea]] <br />
[[Estonia]] <br />
[[Ethiopia]] <br />
[[European Union]] <br />
[[Fiji]] <br />
[[Finland]] <br />
France <br />
[[Gabon]] <br />
[[Gambia]] <br />
[[Georgia (country)|Georgia]] <br />
Germany <br />
[[Ghana]] <br />
[[Greece]] <br />
[[Grenada]] <br />
[[Guatemala]] <br />
[[Guinea]] <br />
[[Guinea-Bissau]] <br />
[[Guyana]] <br />
[[Haiti]] <br />
[[Honduras]] <br />
[[Hungary]] <br />
[[Iceland]] <br />
[[India]] <br />
[[Indonesia]] <br />
[[Iran]] <br />
[[Iraq]] <br />
Ireland <br />
[[Israel]] <br />
[[Italy]] <br />
[[Jamaica]] <br />
Japan <br />
[[Jordan]] <br />
[[Kazakhstan]] <br />
[[Kenya]] <br />
[[Kiribati]] <br />
[[North Korea]] <br />
[[South Korea]] <br />
[[Kuwait]] <br />
[[Kyrgyzstan]] <br />
[[Laos]] <br />
[[Latvia]] <br />
[[Lebanon]] <br />
[[Lesotho]] <br />
[[Liberia]] <br />
[[Libya]] <br />
| style="width:25%; vertical-align:top;"|
[[Liechtenstein]] <br />
[[Lithuania]] <br />
[[Luxembourg]] <br />
[[Republic of Macedonia]] <br />
[[Madagascar]] <br />
[[Malawi]] <br />
[[Malaysia]] <br />
[[Maldives]] <br />
[[Mali]] <br />
[[Malta]] <br />
[[Marshall Islands]] <br />
[[Mauritania]] <br />
[[Mauritius]] <br />
[[Mexico]] <br />
[[Federated States of Micronesia]] <br />
[[Moldova]] <br />
[[Monaco]] <br />
[[Mongolia]] <br />
[[Montenegro]] <br />
[[Morocco]] <br />
[[Mozambique]] <br />
[[Namibia]] <br />
[[Nauru]] <br />
[[Nepal]] <br />
[[Netherlands]] <br />
New Zealand <br />
[[Nicaragua]] <br />
[[Niger]] <br />
[[Nigeria]] <br />
[[Niue]] <br />
[[Norway]] <br />
[[Oman]] <br />
[[Pakistan]] <br />
[[Palau]] <br />
[[Panama]] <br />
[[Papua New Guinea]] <br />
[[Paraguay]] <br />
[[Peru]] <br />
[[Philippines]] <br />
[[Poland]] <br />
[[Portugal]] <br />
[[Qatar]] <br />
[[Romania]] <br />
[[Russia]] <br />
[[Rwanda]] <br />
[[Saint Kitts and Nevis]] <br />
[[Saint Lucia]] <br />
[[Saint Vincent and the Grenadines]] <br />
[[Samoa]] <br />
[[San Marino]] <br />
| style="width:25%; vertical-align:top;"|
[[São Tomé and Príncipe]] <br />
[[Saudi Arabia]] <br />
[[Senegal]] <br />
[[Serbia]] <br />
[[Seychelles]] <br />
[[Sierra Leone]] <br />
[[Singapore]] <br />
[[Slovakia]] <br />
[[Slovenia]] <br />
[[Solomon Islands]] <br />
[[Somalia]] (non-party to Kyoto) <br />
South Africa <br />
Spain <br />
[[Sri Lanka]] <br />
[[Sudan]] <br />
[[Suriname]] <br />
[[Swaziland]] <br />
[[Sweden]] <br />
[[Switzerland]] <br />
[[Syria]] <br />
[[Tajikistan]] <br />
[[Tanzania]] <br />
[[Thailand]] <br />
[[Timor-Leste]] <br />
[[Togo]] <br />
[[Tonga]] <br />
[[Trinidad and Tobago]] <br />
[[Tunisia]] <br />
[[Turkey]] <br />
[[Turkmenistan]] <br />
[[Tuvalu]] <br />
[[Uganda]] <br />
[[Ukraine]] <br />
[[United Arab Emirates]] <br />
United Kingdom <br />
United States (non-party to Kyoto) <br />
[[Uruguay]] <br />
[[Uzbekistan]] <br />
[[Vanuatu]] <br />
[[Venezuela]] <br />
[[Vietnam]] <br />
[[Yemen]] <br />
[[Zambia]] <br />
[[Zimbabwe]]
*'''Observers:'''
[[Andorra]] (non-party to Kyoto) <br />
[[Holy See]] (non-party to Kyoto) <br />
|}
{{hidden end}}

===Non-ratification by the US===
The US signed the Protocol on 12 November 1998,<ref>{{cite web|title=Congressional Research Service Reports #98-349: Global Climate Change: Selected Legal Questions About the Kyoto Protocol|url=http://www.csa.com/discoveryguides/ern/01jul/98-349.php}}</ref> during the Clinton presidency. To become binding in the US, however, the treaty had to be ratified by the Senate, which had already passed the 1997 non-binding [[Byrd-Hagel Resolution]], expressing disapproval of any international agreement that did not require developing countries to make emission reductions and "would seriously harm the economy of the United States".  The resolution passed 95-0.<ref>Byrd-Hagel Resolution (http://www.nationalcenter.org/KyotoSenate.html)</ref> Therefore, even though the [[Clinton administration]] signed the treaty,<ref>[http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1997/12/11/kyoto/ "Clinton Hails Global Warming Pact"]. All Politics (CNN). 11 December 1997. Retrieved 5 November 2006.</ref> it was never submitted to the Senate for ratification.

When [[George W. Bush]] was elected US president in 2000, he was asked by [[US Senator]] [[Chuck Hagel]] what his administration's position was on climate change. Bush replied that he took climate change "very seriously",<ref>http://www.ontheissues.org/Celeb/George_W__Bush_Energy_+_Oil.htm#56</ref> but that he opposed the Kyoto treaty, because "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy".<ref name="Dessai 2001 5">{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=5}}</ref> The [[Tyndall Centre]] for Climate Change Research reported in 2001:<blockquote>This policy reversal received a massive wave of criticism that was quickly picked up by the international media. Environmental groups blasted the White House, while Europeans and Japanese alike expressed deep concern and regret. [...] Almost all world leaders (e.g. China, Japan, South Africa, Pacific Islands, etc.) expressed their disappointment at Bush's decision.</blockquote>In response to this criticism, Bush stated: "I was responding to reality, and reality is the nation has got a real problem when it comes to energy". The Tyndall Centre called this "an overstatement used to cover up the big benefactors of this policy reversal, i.e., the US oil and coal industry, which has a powerful lobby with the administration and conservative Republican congressmen."<ref>{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|pp=5–6}}</ref>

As of 2016, the US is the only signatory that has not ratified the Protocol.<ref>[https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-a&chapter=27&lang=en Participant list by UN]</ref>

The US accounted for 36% of emissions in 1990. As such, for the treaty to go into legal effect without US ratification would require a coalition including the EU, Russia, Japan, and small parties. A deal, without at that moment the US Administration, was reached in the Bonn climate talks (COP-6.5), held in 2001.<ref>{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|pp=5–10}}</ref>

===Withdrawal of Canada===

{{Main article|Kyoto Protocol and government action#Withdrawal of Canada}}
{{See also|Canada and the Kyoto Protocol}}

In 2011, Canada, Japan and Russia stated that they would not take on further Kyoto targets.<ref name=canadaguardian>{{cite web
|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/dec/13/canada-pulls-out-kyoto-protocol
|title=Canada pulls out of Kyoto protocol
|work=The Guardian
|accessdate=13 December 2011
|date=13 December 2011}}</ref> The Canadian government announced its withdrawal—possible at any time three years after ratification—from the Kyoto Protocol on 12 December 2011, effective 15 December 2012.<ref>{{cite web
|url=http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1100802--canada-withdrawing-from-kyoto?bn=1#article
|title=Canada withdrawing from Kyoto
|work=The Toronto Star
|date= 12 December 2011 |accessdate=12 December 2011}}</ref> Canada was committed to cutting its greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels by 2012, but in 2009 emissions were 17% higher than in 1990. The [[Stephen Harper|Harper]] government prioritized oil sands development in Alberta, and deprioritized improving the environment. Environment minister [[Peter Kent]] cited Canada's liability to "enormous financial penalties" under the treaty unless it withdrew.<ref name=canadaguardian/><ref>{{cite web
|url= http://business.financialpost.com/2011/12/13/canada-to-pull-out-of-kyoto-protocol/
|title=Canada to pull out of Kyoto protocol
|work=Reuters
|publisher=Financial Post
|first1 = David | last1 = Ljunggren | first2 = Randall | last2 = Palmer
|date=13 December 2011
|accessdate=9 January 2012 }}</ref>  He also suggested that the recently signed [[2011 United Nations Climate Change Conference|Durban agreement]] may provide an alternative way forward.<ref name="bbc canada withdrawal">{{cite news
|title=Canada under fire over Kyoto protocol exit
|newspaper=BBC News
 | url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16165033
|date=13 December 2011}}</ref> The Harper government claimed it would find a "Made in Canada" solution, but never found any such solution. Canada's decision received a generally negative response from representatives of other ratifying countries.<ref name="bbc canada withdrawal"/>

Justin Trudeau, the new Prime Minister of Canada who is from the Liberal Party as opposed to the previous Conservative administration of Steven Harper has been quoted saying he "Will restore the place of science in evidence-based policy making." <ref>{{Cite journal|last=Esa|date=2015-12-01|title=Dispatches|url=http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/1540-9295-13.10.528/abstract|journal=Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment|language=en|volume=13|issue=10|pages=528–531|doi=10.1890/1540-9295-13.10.528|issn=1540-9309}}</ref> Trudeau has restored a position of Chief Science Advisor which Harper eliminated during his term in 2008. <ref>{{Cite journal|last=Esa|date=2015-12-01|title=Dispatches|url=http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/1540-9295-13.10.528/abstract|journal=Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment|language=en|volume=13|issue=10|pages=528–531|doi=10.1890/1540-9295-13.10.528|issn=1540-9309}}</ref> Harper had a focus on easing the burdens of the oil and gas industry and pipelines, which is a profitable industry in Canada, especially Alberta. Trudeau has also created a whole new position, the Minister of Science. <ref>{{Cite journal|last=Esa|date=2015-12-01|title=Dispatches|url=http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/1540-9295-13.10.528/abstract|journal=Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment|language=en|volume=13|issue=10|pages=528–531|doi=10.1890/1540-9295-13.10.528|issn=1540-9309}}</ref>

===Other states and territories where the treaty is not applicable===
Andorra, [[State of Palestine|Palestine]], [[South Sudan]], the United States and, following their withdrawal on 15 December 2012, Canada are the only UNFCCC Parties that are not party to the Protocol. Furthermore, the Protocol is not applied to UNFCCC observer the [[Holy See]]. Although the [[Kingdom of the Netherlands]] approved the protocol for the whole Kingdom, it did not deposit an instrument of ratification for Aruba, Curaçao, Sint Maarten or the [[Caribbean Netherlands]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.minbuza.nl/en/key-topics/treaties/search-the-treaty-database/1997/12/008415.html|work=[[Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Netherlands)]]|title=Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|accessdate=30 December 2012}}</ref>

==Government action and emissions==

{{Main article|Kyoto Protocol and government action}}
{{See also|List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions per capita|List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions|List of countries by ratio of GDP to carbon dioxide emissions}}

===Annex I countries===
[[File:CO2emissions1.jpg|thumb|Anthropogenic emissions of CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalents per year by the 10 largest emitters (the European Union is lumped as a single area, because of their integrated carbon trading scheme). Data sorted based on 2010 contributions.
{{legend|#FF6600|China (party, no binding targets)}}
{{legend|#0000FF|United States (non-party)}}
{{legend|#FFFF00|European Union (party, binding targets)}}
{{legend|#616228|India (party, no binding targets)}}
{{legend|#FF0000|Russia (party, binding targets 2008-2012)}}
{{legend|#CCFFCC|Indonesia (party, no binding targets)}}
{{legend|#948A54|Brazil (party, no binding targets)}}
{{legend|#1FE9FF|Japan (party, no binding targets)}}
{{legend|#AD9618|Congo (DR) (party, no binding targets)}}
{{legend|#9537DA|Canada (former party, binding targets 2008-2012)}}
{{legend|#A6A6A6|Other countries}}]]
Total aggregate GHG emissions excluding emissions/removals from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF, i.e., carbon storage in forests and soils) for all Annex I Parties (see list below) including the United States taken together decreased from 19.0 to 17.8 thousand [[Orders of magnitude (mass)|teragrams]] (Tg, which is equal to 10<sup>9</sup>&nbsp;kg) {{chem|CO|2}} equivalent, a decline of 6.0% during the 1990-2008 period.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications">
{{citation
 | year=2011
 | author=[[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] (UNFCCC)
 | title=Compilation and synthesis of fifth national communications. Executive summary. Note by the secretariat.
 | url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2011/sbi/eng/inf01.pdf
 | publisher=United Nations Office at Geneva
 | location=Geneva (Switzerland)
}}
</ref>{{Rp|3|date=November 2012}}  Several factors have contributed to this decline.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}}  The first is due to the economic restructuring in the Annex I Economies in Transition<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}}  (the EITs – see [[Kyoto Protocol#Intergovernmental Emissions Trading|Intergovernmental Emissions Trading]] for the list of EITs). Over the period 1990-1999, emissions fell by 40% in the EITs following the collapse of [[planned economy|central planning]] in the former [[Soviet Union]] and [[Eastern Europe|east European]] countries.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions">
{{citation
|title=Long-term trend in global {{chem|CO|2}} emissions; 2011 report
|date=21 September 2011
| last1 = Olivier | first1 = J. G. J. 
|url=http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/C02%20Mondiaal_%20webdef_19sept.pdf
|publisher=PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES) of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC)
|location=The Hague, Netherlands
|isbn=978-90-78645-68-9
|display-authors=etal}} PBL publication number 500253004. JRC Technical Note number JRC65918.</ref>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}}  This led to a massive contraction of their heavy industry-based economies, with associated reductions in their fossil fuel consumption and emissions.<ref name="2009 carbon trust carbon market"/>{{Rp|24|date=November 2012}}

Emissions growth in Annex I Parties have also been limited due to policies and measures (PaMs).<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}} In particular, PaMs were strengthened after 2000, helping to enhance energy efficiency and develop renewable energy sources.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}} Energy use also decreased during the economic crisis in 2007-2008.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}}

====Projections====

UNFCCC (2011)<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}} made projections of changes in emissions of the Annex I Parties and the effectiveness of their PaMs. It was noted that their projections should be interpreted with caution.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|7|date=November 2012}}  For the 39 Annex I Parties, UNFCCC (2011) projected that existing PaMs would lead to annual emissions in 2010 of 17.5 thousand Tg {{chem|CO|2}} eq, excluding LULUCF, which is a decrease of 6.7% from the 1990 level.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}} Annual emissions in 2020 excluding LULUCF were projected to reach 18.9 thousand Tg {{chem|CO|2}} eq, which is an increase of 0.6% on the 1990 level.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}}

UNFCCC (2011)<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}} made an estimate of the total effect of implemented and adopted PaMs. Projected savings were estimated relative to a [[Economics of climate change mitigation#Baselines|reference (baseline) scenario]] where PaMs are not implemented.  PaMs were projected to deliver emissions savings relative to baseline of about 1.5 thousand Tg {{chem|CO|2}} eq by 2010, and 2.8 thousand Tg {{chem|CO|2}} eq by 2020.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}}  In percentage terms, and using annual emissions in the year 1990 as a reference point, PaMs were projected to deliver at least a 5.0% reduction relative to baseline by 2010, and a 10.0% reduction relative to baseline in 2020.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}} Scenarios reviewed by UNFCCC (2011)<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}} still suggested that total Annex I annual emissions would increase out to 2020 (see the preceding paragraph).

====Annex I Parties with targets====

{| class="wikitable"
|+ Percentage changes in emissions for Annex I Parties with Kyoto targets<ref>Emissions data given in this table may not fully reflect progress towards the first-round Kyoto targets. This is because of the implicit trading of targets under the EU ETS (see [[Kyoto Protocol#Intergovernmental Emissions Trading]]), possible effects of trade in AAUs (see [[Kyoto Protocol#Trade in AAUs]]), and the use of different emissions base years for some Parties (see [[Kyoto Protocol#2012 emission targets and "flexible mechanisms"]]).</ref>
! Country/region !! Kyoto<br/>target<br />2008-2012 !!  Kyoto<br/>target<br />2013-2020!! <br/>GHG<br/>emissions<br/>1990-2008<br/>including<br/>LULUCF<ref name="unfccc 2011 annex i emissions">
{{harvnb|UNFCCC|2011|p=7}}
</ref><ref>Aggregate emissions of the Kyoto "basket" of GHGs (see [[Kyoto Protocol#2012 emission targets and "flexible mechanisms"]]), measured in carbon dioxide equivalent, and ''including'' changes in emissions due to carbon sinks ([[Kyoto Protocol#Details of the agreement|land use, land use change, and forestry]])</ref> !! GHG<br/>emissions<br/>1990-2008<br/>excluding<br/>LULUCF<ref name="unfccc 2011 annex i emissions"/><ref>Aggregate emissions of the Kyoto "basket" of GHGs (see [[Kyoto Protocol#2012 emission targets and "flexible mechanisms"]]), measured in carbon dioxide equivalent, and ''excluding'' changes in emissions due to carbon sinks ([[Kyoto Protocol#Details of the agreement|land use, land use change, and forestry]])</ref> !! {{CO2}}<br/>emissions<br/>from fuel<br/>combustion<br/>only<br/>1990-2009<br/><ref>
{{harvnb|IEA|2011|p=13}}
</ref><ref>{{CO<sub>2</sub>}} emissions from fuel combustion only. Estimates applying the Kyoto targets to International Energy Agency (IEA) data suggest the overall Kyoto target is equivalent to about 4.7% on an aggregate basis for {{CO<sub>2</sub>}} emissions from fuel combustion</ref>
|-
| ''[[North America]]'' || - || - || - || - || +20.4
|-
| [[Canada]]<ref name="Canada withdrawal">''StarTribune'' - [http://www.startribune.com/world/135469408.html Canada formally pulls out of Kyoto Protocol on climate change] Retrieved 4 May 2012.</ref><ref>In 2011, Canada withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol</ref> || -6 || - || +33.6 || +24.1 || +20.4
|-
| ''[[Europe]]'' ||  ||  ||  || || -4.9
|-
| ''[[European Union]]'' || -8 || -20<ref name=EU>For the region encompassing the European Union, Croatia and Iceland</ref> ||  ||  || 
|-
| [[Austria]] || -8 (-13)|| -20<ref name=EU/> || +6.6 || +10.8 || +12.2
|-
| [[Belgium]] || -8 (-7.5)||-20<ref name=EU/> ||  -6.2 || -7.1 || -6.7
|-
| [[Denmark]] || -8 (-21) || -20<ref name=EU/> || -6.8 || -6.8 || -7.2
|-
| [[Finland]] || -8 (0)|| -20<ref name=EU/> || -35.9 || -0.2 || +1.1
|-
| [[France]] || -8 (0)|| -20<ref name=EU/> || -12.7 || -5.9 || +0.6<ref>Monaco's {{CO2}} emissions from fuel combustion are included with France's.</ref>
|-
| [[Germany]] || -8 (-21)|| -20<ref name=EU/> || -17.6 || -21.4 || -21.1
|-
| [[Greece]] || -8 (+25)||-20<ref name=EU/> ||  +22.9 || +23.1 || +28.6
|-
| [[Iceland]] || +10 || -20<ref name=EU/> || +19.2 || +42.9 || +6.2
|-
| [[Republic of Ireland|Ireland]] || -8 (+13) || -20<ref name=EU/> || +19.9 || +23.2 || +32.4
|-
| [[Italy]] || -8 (-6.5) || -20<ref name=EU/> || +0.4 || +4.7 || -2.0
|-
| [[Luxembourg]] || -8 (-28)|| -20<ref name=EU/> || -9.2 || -4.8 || -4.4
|-
| [[Netherlands]] || -8 (-6)|| -20<ref name=EU/> || -2.4 || -2.4 || +13.0
|-
| [[Norway]] || +1 || -16 || -32.8 || +9.4 || +31.9
|-
| [[Portugal]] || -8 (+27)|| -20<ref name=EU/> || +18.3 || +32.2 || +35.3
|-
| [[Spain]] || -8 (+15)|| -20<ref name=EU/> || +44.0 || +42.5 || +37.7
|-
| [[Sweden]] || -8 (+4)|| -20<ref name=EU/> || +19.8 || -11.3 || -20.9
|-
| [[Switzerland]] || -8 || -15.8 || +6.8 || +0.4 || +2.5
|-
| [[United Kingdom]] || -8 (-12.5)|| -19.0 || -18.5 || -15.2
|-
| ''[[Asia]] and [[Oceania]]'' || - || - || - || +12.7
|-
| [[Australia]] || +8 || -0.5 || +33.1 || +31.4 || +51.8
|-
| [[Japan]] || -6 || - || -0.2 || +1.0 || +2.7
|-
| [[New Zealand]] || 0 || - || +62.4 || +22.7 || +34.3
|-
| ''Economies in<br/>Transition'' || - || - || - || -36.2
|-
| [[Bulgaria]] || -8 || -20<ref name=EU/> ||  -45.5 || -42.8 || -43.7
|-
| [[Croatia]] || -5 || -20<ref name=EU/> || -13.7 || -0.9 || -8.4
|-
| [[Czech Republic]] || -8 || -20<ref name=EU/> || -28.7 || -27.5 || -29.2
|-
| [[Estonia]] || -8 ||-20<ref name=EU/> ||  -69.9 || -50.9 || -59.4
|-
| [[Hungary]] || -6 || -20<ref name=EU/> || -38.1 || -36.2 || -27.8
|-
| [[Latvia]] || -8 || -20<ref name=EU/> || -307.9 || -55.6 || -63.8
|-
| [[Lithuania]] || -8 || -20<ref name=EU/> || -69.1 || -51.8 || -62.6
|-
| [[Poland]] || -6 || -20<ref name=EU/> ||  -34.4 || -29.6 || -16.2
|-
| [[Romania]] || -8 || -20<ref name=EU/> ||  -53.5 || -45.9 || -53.1
|-
| [[Russia|Russian<br/>Federation]] || 0 || - || -52.8 || -32.8 || -29.7
|-
| [[Slovakia|Slovak<br/>Republic]] || -8 || -20<ref name=EU/> || -34.4 || -33.7 || -41.5
|-
| [[Slovenia]] || -8 || -20<ref name=EU/> || +5.2 || +5.2 || +21.2
|-
| [[Ukraine]] || 0 ||  -24 || -52.2 || -53.9 || -62.7
|}
''Data given in the table above may not be fully reflective of a country's progress towards meeting its first-round Kyoto target. The summary below contains more up-to-date information on how close countries are to meeting their first-round targets.''

[[File:Carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion of Annex I Kyoto Protocol Parties 1990-2009.png|thumb|left|alt=Refer to caption and image description|{{CO2}} emissions from fuel combustion of Annex I Kyoto Protocol (KP) Parties, 1990-2009. Total Annex I KP emissions are shown, along with emissions of Annex II KP and Annex I EITs.]]

Collectively the group of industrialized countries committed to a Kyoto target, i.e., the Annex I countries excluding the US, have a target of reducing their GHG emissions by 4.2% on average for the period 2008-2012 relative to the base year, which in most cases is 1990.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|24|date=November 2012}}  According to Olivier ''et al.'' (2011),<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|24|date=November 2012}} the Kyoto Parties will comfortably exceed their collective target, with a projected average reduction of 16% for 2008-2012. This projection excludes both LULUCF and credits generated by the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|24|date=November 2012}}

As noted in the preceding section, between 1990–1999, there was a large reduction in the emissions of the EITs.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}} The reduction in the EITs is largely responsible for the total (aggregate) reduction (excluding LULUCF) in emissions of the Annex I countries, excluding the US.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}} Emissions of the Annex II countries (Annex I minus the EIT countries) have experienced a limited increase in emissions from 1990–2006, followed by stabilization and a more marked decrease from 2007 onwards.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}} The emissions reductions in the early nineties by the 12 EIT countries who have since joined the EU, assist the present EU-27 in meeting its collective Kyoto target.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}}

Almost all European countries are on track to achieve their first-round Kyoto targets.<ref name="eea 1st round kyoto">
{{harvnb|EEA|2012|p=7}}
</ref> Spain plans to meet its target by purchasing a large quantity of Kyoto units through the flexibility mechanisms.<ref name="eea 1st round kyoto"/> Australia,<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}} Canada<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}} (Canada withdrew from the Kyoto treaty in 2012),<ref name="vaughan 2011 canada withdrawal"/> and Italy<ref name="eea 1st round kyoto"/> are not on course to meet their first-round Kyoto targets. In order to meet their targets, these countries would need to purchase emissions credits from other Kyoto countries.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}} As noted in the section on [[Kyoto Protocol#Intergovernmental Emissions Trading|Intergovernmental Emissions Trading]], purchasing surplus credits from the EIT countries would not actually result in total emissions being reduced. An alternative would be the purchase of CDM credits or the use of the voluntary Green Investment Scheme.

In December 2011, Canada's environment minister, [[Peter Kent]], formally announced that [[Climate change in Canada|Canada]] would withdraw from the Kyoto accord a day after the end of the [[2011 United Nations Climate Change Conference]] (see the section on the [[Kyoto Protocol#Withdrawal of Canada|withdrawal of Canada]]).<ref name="vaughan 2011 canada withdrawal">
{{cite web
 | url= https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/dec/13/canada-withdrawal-kyoto-protocol?intcmp=239
 | last= Vaughan |first= A
 | title= What does Canada's withdrawal from Kyoto protocol mean?
 | work= The Guardian
 | date= 13 December 2011
 | accessdate=17 December 2011
}}
</ref>

====Annex I Parties without Kyoto targets====

Belarus, Malta, and Turkey are Annex I Parties but do not have first-round Kyoto targets.<ref>
{{citation
|title=CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2011 - Highlights
|year=2011
|author=International Energy Agency (IEA)
|url=http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/co2highlights.pdf
|publisher=IEA
|location=Paris, France
|page=13
}}
</ref> The US has a Kyoto target of a 6% reduction relative to the 1990 level, but has not ratified the treaty.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}}  Emissions in the US have increased 11% since 1990, and according to Olivier ''et al.'' (2011),<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}}  it will be unable to meet its original Kyoto target.

If the US had ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the average percentage reduction in total GHG emissions for the Annex I group would have been a 5.2% reduction relative to the base year.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|26|date=November 2012}} Including the US in their calculation, Olivier ''et al.'' (2011)<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|26|date=November 2012}}  projected that the Annex I countries would collectively achieve a 7% reduction relative to the base year, which is lower than the original target of a 5.2% reduction. This projection excludes expected purchases of emissions credits.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|26|date=November 2012}}

===Non-Annex I===

{{Multiple image
 |direction=vertical
 | align=right
 | image1=Annual per capita carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion between 1990-2009 for the Kyoto Annex I and non-Annex I Parties.png
 | alt1=Refer to caption
 | image2=Annual carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion between 1990-2009 for the Kyoto Annex I and non-Annex I Parties.png
 | alt2=Refer to caption
 | width=200
 | caption1= Annual per capita carbon dioxide emissions (i.e., average emissions per person) from fuel combustion between 1990-2009 for the Kyoto Annex I and non-Annex I Parties.
 | caption2=Annual carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion between 1990-2009 for the Kyoto Annex I and non-Annex I Parties.}}

UNFCCC (2005) compiled and synthesized information reported to it by non-Annex I Parties.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary">
{{Citation
|date=25 October 2005
|author=UNFCCC
|title=Sixth compilation and synthesis of initial national communications from Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention. Note by the secretariat. Executive summary. Document code FCCC/SBI/2005/18
|url=http://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600003578#beg
|publisher=United Nations Office at Geneva, Switzerland
|accessdate=20 May 2010}}</ref> Most non-Annex I Parties belonged in the low-income group, with very few classified as middle-income.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"/>{{Rp|4|date=November 2012}} Most Parties included information on policies relating to [[sustainable development]]. Sustainable development priorities mentioned by non-Annex I Parties included poverty alleviation and access to basic education and health care.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"/>{{Rp|6|date=November 2012}} Many non-Annex I Parties are making efforts to amend and update their [[environmental legislation]] to include global concerns such as climate change.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"/>{{Rp|7|date=November 2012}}

A few Parties, e.g., South Africa and [[Iran]], stated their concern over how efforts to reduce emissions by Annex I Parties could adversely affect their economies.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"/>{{Rp|7|date=November 2012}} The economies of these countries are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing, and export of [[fossil fuel]]s.

'''Emissions'''

GHG emissions, excluding land use change and forestry (LUCF), reported by 122 non-Annex I Parties for the year 1994 or the closest year reported, totalled 11.7&nbsp;billion tonnes (billion&nbsp;=&nbsp;1,000,000,000) of CO<sub>2</sub>-eq. CO<sub>2</sub> was the largest proportion of emissions (63%), followed by [[methane]] (26%) and [[nitrous oxide]] (N<sub>2</sub>O) (11%).

The [[energy sector]] was the largest source of emissions for 70 Parties, whereas for 45 Parties the agriculture sector was the largest. Per capita emissions (in tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub>-eq, excluding LUCF) averaged 2.8&nbsp;tonnes for the 122 non-Annex I Parties.
*The Africa region's [[aggregate data|aggregate]] emissions were 1.6&nbsp;billion&nbsp;tonnes, with per capita emissions of 2.4&nbsp;tonnes.
*The Asia and Pacific region's aggregate emissions were 7.9&nbsp;billion&nbsp;tonnes, with per capita emissions of 2.6&nbsp;tonnes.
*The Latin America and [[Caribbean]] region's aggregate emissions were 2&nbsp;billion&nbsp;tonnes, with per capita emissions of 4.6&nbsp;tonnes.
*The "other" region includes [[Albania]], Armenia, [[Azerbaijan]], Georgia, Malta, [[Republic of Moldova|Moldova]], and [[Republic of Macedonia|Macedonia]]. Their aggregate emissions were 0.1&nbsp;billion&nbsp;tonnes, with per capita emissions of 5.1&nbsp;tonnes.

Parties reported a high level of uncertainty in LUCF emissions, but in aggregate, there appeared to only be a small difference of 1.7% with and without LUCF. With LUCF, emissions were 11.9&nbsp;billion&nbsp;tonnes, without LUCF, total aggregate emissions were 11.7&nbsp;billion&nbsp;tonnes.

''Trends''

In several large developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, and Iran) GHG emissions have increased rapidly (PBL, 2009).<ref>{{cite web|title=Industrialised countries will collectively meet 2010 Kyoto target |author=PBL |date=16 October 2009 |publisher=Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) website |url=http://www.pbl.nl/en/dossiers/COP13Bali/moreinfo/Industrialised-countries-will-collectively-meet-2010-Kyoto-target.html |accessdate=3 April 2010 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20100409000327/http://www.pbl.nl/en/dossiers/COP13Bali/moreinfo/Industrialised-countries-will-collectively-meet-2010-Kyoto-target.html |archivedate=9 April 2010 }}</ref>  For example, emissions in China have risen strongly over the 1990–2005 period, often by more than 10% year. Emissions per-capita in non-Annex I countries are still, for the most part, much lower than in industrialized countries. Non-Annex I countries do not have quantitative emission reduction commitments, but they are committed to mitigation actions. China, for example, has had a national policy programme to reduce emissions growth, which included the closure of old, less efficient coal-fired power plants.

==Cost estimates==

Barker ''et al.'' (2007, p.&nbsp;79) assessed the literature on cost estimates for the Kyoto Protocol.<ref>{{cite book
|year=2007
|contribution=Mitigation costs across sectors and macro-economic costs
|title=Technical summary
|series=Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|editor1-first = B. | editor1-last = Metz | editor2-first = O. R. | editor2-last = Davidson | editor3-first = P. R. | editor3-last = Bosch | editor4-first = R. | editor4-last = Dave | editor5-first = L. A. | editor5-last = Meyer
|publisher=Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. This version: IPCC website
|isbn=978-0-521-88011-4
| last1 = Barker | first1 = T. 
|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/tssts-ts-11-2-mitigation-costs.html
|accessdate=16 April 2011|display-authors=etal}}</ref> Due to non-US participation in the Kyoto treaty, costs estimates were found to be much lower than those estimated in the previous [[IPCC Third Assessment Report]]. Without US participation, and with full use of the Kyoto flexible mechanisms, costs were estimated at less than 0.05% of Annex B GDP. This compared to earlier estimates of 0.1–1.1%. Without use of the flexible mechanisms, costs without US participation were estimated at less than 0.1%. This compared to earlier estimates of 0.2–2%. These cost estimates were viewed as being based on much evidence and high agreement in the literature.

==Views on the Protocol==
{{Main article|Views on the Kyoto Protocol}}

Gupta ''et al.'' (2007) assessed the literature on climate change policy. They found that no authoritative assessments of the UNFCCC or its Protocol asserted that these agreements had, or will, succeed in solving the climate problem.<ref name=gupta>{{cite book
|year=2007
|contribution=13.3.1 Evaluations of existing climate change agreements. In (book chapter): Policies, instruments, and co-operative arrangements. |title=Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. |series=Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |editor=B. Metz |display-editors=etal
|publisher=Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website
| last1 = Gupta | first1 = S. 
|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-3-1.html
|accessdate=2 April 2010|display-authors=etal}}</ref> In these assessments, it was assumed that the UNFCCC or its Protocol would not be changed. The Framework Convention and its Protocol include provisions for future policy actions to be taken.

Gupta ''et al.'' (2007)<ref name="gupta kyoto assessment">
{{citation
 | last1 = Gupta | first1 = S. 
 | chapter=Chapter 13: Policies, instruments, and co-operative arrangements
 | url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-es.html
 |title=Executive Summary
|display-authors=etal}}
, in {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}
</ref>  described the Kyoto first-round commitments as "modest," stating that they acted as a constraint on the treaty's effectiveness. It was suggested that subsequent Kyoto commitments could be made more effective with measures aimed at achieving deeper cuts in emissions, as well as having policies applied to a larger share of global emissions.<ref name="gupta kyoto assessment"/> In 2008, countries with a Kyoto cap made up less than one-third of annual global carbon dioxide emissions from fuel [[combustion]].<ref>
{{cite book
 | title=CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions from Fuel Combustion - 2011 Highlights
 | author=International Energy Agency (IEA)
 | url=http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/CO2highlights.pdf
 | publisher=IEA
 | location=Paris, France
 | page=12
}}
</ref>

World Bank (2010)<ref name="world bank kyoto comments">
{{citation
 | title=5. Integrating development into a global climate regime
 | url=http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDRS/Resources/477365-1327504426766/8389626-1327510418796/Chapter-5.pdf
}}, in {{harvnb|World Bank|2010|p=233}}
</ref> commented on how the Kyoto Protocol had only had a slight effect on curbing global emissions growth. The treaty was negotiated in 1997, but in 2006, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions had grown by 24%.<ref>
{{citation
 | title=5. Integrating development into a global climate regime
 | url=http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDRS/Resources/477365-1327504426766/8389626-1327510418796/Chapter-5.pdf
}}, in {{harvnb|World Bank|2010|p=248}}
</ref> World Bank (2010) also stated that the treaty had provided only limited financial support to developing countries to assist them in reducing their emissions and adapting to climate change.<ref name="world bank kyoto comments"/>

Some of the [[criticism of the Kyoto Protocol|criticism of the Protocol]] has been based on the idea of climate justice (Liverman, 2008, p.&nbsp;14).<ref name=liverman>{{cite journal
|year=2008
|title=Conventions of climate change: constructions of danger and the dispossession of the atmosphere
|doi=10.1016/j.jhg.2008.08.008
| last = Liverman | first = D. M.
|journal=Journal of Historical Geography
|url=http://www.environment.arizona.edu/files/env/profiles/liverman/liverman-2009-jhg.pdf
|accessdate=10 May 2011
|volume=35
|pages=279–296
|issue=2}}</ref>
This has particularly centered on the balance between the low emissions and high vulnerability of the developing world to climate change, compared to high emissions in the developed world. Another criticism of the Kyoto Protocol and other international conventions, is the right of indigenous peoples right to participate. Quoted here from The Declaration of the [[International Indigenous Peoples Forum on Climate Change|First International Forum of Indigenous Peoples on Climate Change]], it says "Despite the recognition of our role in preventing global warming, when it comes time to sign international conventions like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, once again, our right to participate in national and international discussions that directly affect or Peoples and territories is denied."<ref name=":0">{{Cite book|url=https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/51559162|title=Indigenous peoples and environmental issues : an encyclopedia|last=1950-|first=Johansen, Bruce E. (Bruce Elliott),|date=2003-01-01|publisher=Greenwood Press|year=|isbn=9780313323980|location=|pages=115–116|oclc=51559162|quote=|via=}}</ref> Additionally, later in the declaration, it reads <blockquote>"We denounce the fact that neither the [United Nations] nor the Kyoto Protocol recognizes the existence or the contributions of Indigenous Peoples. Furthermore, the debates under these instruments have not considered the suggestions and proposals of the Indigenous Peoples nor have the appropriate mechanisms to guarantee our participation in all the debates that directly concern the Indigenous Peoples has been established."<ref name=":0" /></blockquote>Some environmentalists have supported the Kyoto Protocol because it is "the only game in town," and possibly because they expect that future emission reduction commitments may demand more stringent emission reductions (Aldy ''et al.''., 2003, p.&nbsp;9).<ref name=aldy>{{cite journal
|title=Thirteen Plus One: A Comparison of Global Climate Policy Architectures
|date=9 September 2003
| last1 = Aldy | first1 = J. E. 
|journal=Climate Policy
|volume=3
|issue=3
|pages=373–397
|url=http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/17261/thirteen_plus_one.html
|accessdate=2 April 2010
|doi=10.1016/j.clipol.2003.09.004|display-authors=etal}}</ref> In 2001, seventeen national science academies stated that ratification of the Protocol represented a "small but essential first step towards stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases."<ref>
The joint-statement was made by the [[Australian Academy of Science]], the [[Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Science and the Arts]], the [[Brazilian Academy of Sciences]], the [[Royal Society of Canada]], the Caribbean Academy of Sciences, the [[Chinese Academy of Sciences]], the [[French Academy of Sciences]], the [[German Academy of Sciences Leopoldina|German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina]], the [[Indian National Science Academy]], the Indonesian Academy of Sciences, the [[Royal Irish Academy]], [[Accademia dei Lincei|Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei]] (Italy), the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, the [[Royal Society of New Zealand|Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand]], the [[Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences]], and the [[Royal Society]] (UK). {{citation
 | title=The Science of Climate Change
 | publisher=Royal Society
 | location=London, UK
 | author=Joint statement by 17 national science academies
 | url=http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2001/10029.pdf
 | date=17 May 2001
 | isbn=0854035583
}}. Statement [http://royalsociety.org/policy/publications/2001/science-climate-change/ website] at the UK Royal Society. Also published as: {{citation
|title=The Science of Climate Change (editorial)
|date=18 May 2001
|journal=Science
|volume=292
|issue=5520
|page=1261
|doi=10.1126/science.292.5520.1261
|url=http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/292/5520/1261
}}
</ref> Some environmentalists and scientists have criticized the existing commitments for being too weak (Grubb, 2000, p.&nbsp;5).<ref>{{cite journal
|date=April 2000
| last = Grubb | first = M.
|title=The Kyoto Protocol: An Economic Appraisal. FEEM Working Paper No. 30 2000
|publisher=SSRN
|ssrn=229280
|doi=10.2139/ssrn.229280
}}</ref>

The United States (under former President [[George W. Bush]]) and Australia (initially, under former Prime Minister [[John Howard]]) did not ratify the Kyoto treaty.<ref name="stern us and australia">
{{citation
 | title=22. Creating a global price for carbon
 | url=http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Chapter_22_Creating_a_Global_Price_for_Carbon.pdf
}}, in {{harvnb|Stern|2006|p=478}}
</ref> According to Stern (2006),<ref name="stern us and australia"/> their decision was based on the lack of quantitative emission commitments for emerging economies (see also the [[Kyoto Protocol#2000 onwards|2000 onwards]] section). Australia, under former Prime Minister [[Kevin Rudd]], has since ratified the treaty,<ref>{{cite news
|url=http://abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200610/s1772952.htm
|title=Govt still not serious about climate change: Labor
|work=ABC News Online
|date=26 October 2006
|accessdate=30 October 2006}}</ref><ref name="australia signing">{{cite news
|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7124236.stm
|title=Rudd takes Australia inside Kyoto
|publisher=BBC News
|date=3 December 2007
|accessdate=5 December 2007}}</ref> which took effect in March 2008.<ref>{{cite news
|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7124236.stm
|title=Australia's Rudd sworn in as PM
|work=BBC News
|publisher=BBC
|date=3 December 2007
|accessdate=3 December 2007}}</ref>

===Views on the flexibility mechanisms===

{{Further information|Flexible Mechanisms#Views on the flexibility mechanisms}}

Another area which has been commented on is the role of the Kyoto [[flexibility mechanisms]] – [[emissions trading]], [[Joint Implementation]], and the [[Clean Development Mechanism]] (CDM).<ref name="toth flexibility mechanisms">
Toth ''et al.'' summarize the arguments for and against flexibility: {{citation
 | url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/441.htm
 | title=Sec 10.4.4. Where Should the Response Take Place? The Relationship between Domestic Mitigation and the Use of International Mechanisms
 | chapter=Ch 10: Decision-making Frameworks
 | last1 = Toth | first1 = F. L. 
|display-authors=etal}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
</ref><ref>
{{citation
 | url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/059.htm
 | title=Sec 1.3.3 How Has Global Climate Policy Treated Equity?
 | chapter=Ch 1: Setting the Stage: Climate Change and Sustainable Development
 | last1 = Banuri | first1 = T. 
|display-authors=etal}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
</ref> The flexibility mechanisms have attracted both positive and negative comments.<ref>
{{citation
 | title=Part III: How good (or bad) are the Mechanisms?
}}, in {{harvnb|Carbon Trust|2009|pp=53–79}}
</ref><ref>
{{Citation
 | date=5 November 2007
 | last = Schneider | first = L.
 | title=Is the CDM fulfilling its environmental and sustainable development objectives? An evaluation of the CDM and options for improvement. A report prepared for the WWF
 | chapter=Ch 5: Overall conclusions
 | pages=72–73
 | publisher=Institute for Applied Ecology
 | location=Berlin, Germany
 | url=http://www.panda.org/what_we_do/footprint/climate_carbon_energy/energy_solutions/resources/?118000/An-evaluation-of-the-CDM-and-options-for-improvement
}}
</ref><ref>
{{harvnb|Spash|2010}}
</ref>

As mentioned earlier, a number of Annex I Parties have implemented emissions trading schemes (ETSs) as part of efforts to meet their Kyoto commitments. General commentaries on emissions trading are contained in [[emissions trading]] and [[carbon emission trading]]. Individual articles on the ETSs contain commentaries on these schemes (see [[Kyoto Protocol#International Emissions Trading]] for a list of ETSs).

One of the arguments made in favour of the flexibility mechanisms is that they can reduce the costs incurred by Annex I Parties in meeting their Kyoto commitments.<ref name="toth flexibility mechanisms"/> Criticisms of flexibility have, for example, included the ineffectiveness of emissions trading in promoting investment in non-fossil energy sources,<ref>
{{citation
 | author=United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
 | title= World Economic and Social Survey 2009: Promoting Development, Saving the Planet
 | chapter=VI. Financing the development response to climate change
 | page=162
 | url=http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/wess2009files/wess09/wess2009.pdf
 | publisher=United Nations
 | location=New York, USA
 | isbn=978-92-1-109159-5
}}
</ref> and adverse impacts of CDM projects on local communities in developing countries.<ref>
{{harvnb|Spash|2010|p=185}}
</ref>

=== Philosophy ===
As the Kyoto Protocol seeks to reduce environmental pollutants while at the same time altering the freedoms of some citizens.

As discussed by [[Milton Friedman]], one can achieve both economic and political freedom through capitalism; nonetheless, it is never guaranteed that one is going to have equality of wealth of those on top of the “food chain” of this capitalistic world.<ref>{{Cite journal|date=2017-03-02|title=Capitalist realism|url=https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Capitalist_realism&oldid=768189102|journal=Wikipedia|language=en}}</ref> All these alterations come to what the leaders of the citizens choose to impose in means of improving ones lifestyle. In the case of the Kyoto Protocol, it seeks to impose regulations that will reduce production of pollutants towards the   environment. Furthermore, seeking to compromise the freedoms of both private and public citizens. In one side it imposes bigger regulations towards companies and reducing their profits as they need to fulfill such regulations with, which are often times more expensive, alternatives for production. On the other hand, it seeks to reduce the emissions that potentially cause the rapid environmental change called [[climate change]].

The conditions of the Kyoto Protocol consist of mandatory targets on greenhouse gas emissions for the world's leading economies. As provided by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, "These targets range from -8 per cent to +10 per cent of the countries' individual 1990 emissions levels with a view to reducing their overall emissions of such gases by at least 5 per cent below existing 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012." <ref>{{Cite web|url=http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/background/items/2879.php|title=A Summary of the Kyoto Protocol|last=Change|first=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate|website=unfccc.int|access-date=2017-03-03}}</ref>

These goals are challenged, however, by climate change deniers, who condemn strong scientific evidence of the human impact on climate change. One prominent scholar opines that these climate change deniers "arguably" breach Rousseau's notion of the social contract, which is an implicit agreement among the members of a society to coordinate efforts in the name of overall social benefit. The climate change denial movement hinders efforts at coming to agreements as a collective global society on climate change.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=OFcdDQAAQBAJ&pg=PT93&lpg=PT93&dq=kyoto+protocol+social+contract&source=bl&ots=93zVaUURaH&sig=LKlZaN4CNJJ9ZIDzvJBshK_6euo&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiio4ya9bjSAhUrilQKHZ09BnwQ6AEIUDAJ#v=onepage&q=kyoto%20protocol%20social%20contract&f=false|title=Remaking the Urban Social Contract: Health, Energy, and the Environment|last=Pagano|first=Michael A.|date=2016-08-30|publisher=University of Illinois Press|isbn=9780252099137|language=en}}</ref>

==Conference of the Parties==
{{further information|United Nations Climate Change conference}}
The official meeting of all states party to the Kyoto Protocol is the ''Conference of the Parties''. It is held every year as part of the United Nations Climate Change conference, which also serves as the formal meeting of UNFCCC. The first Meetings of Parties of the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) was held in 2005 in conjunction with the eleventh Conferences of parties to UNFCCC (COP). Also parties to the Convention that are not parties to the Protocol can participate in Protocol-related meetings as observers. The first conference was held in 1995 in Berlin, while the 2013 conference was held in [[2013 United Nations Climate Change Conference|Warsaw]]. Later COPs were held in Lima, Peru in 2014 and in Paris, France in 2015.

==Amendment and possible successors==
{{Main article|Post–Kyoto Protocol negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions}}

{{Expand section|[[Paris Agreement]]|date = December 2015|small = }}

In the non-binding "[[G8+5|Washington Declaration]]" agreed on 16 February 2007, heads of governments from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, Brazil, [[People's Republic of China|China]], [[India]], [[Mexico]] and [[South Africa]] agreed in principle on the outline of a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. They envisaged a global cap-and-trade system that would apply to both industrialized nations and [[developing country|developing countries]], and initially hoped that it would be in place by 2009.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6364663.stm|title=Politicians sign new climate pact|publisher=BBC |date=16 February 2007|accessdate=28 May 2007}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2014683,00.html|title=Global leaders reach climate change agreement|work=The Guardian |location=UK|date=16 February 2007|accessdate=28 May 2007}}</ref>

The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 was one of the annual series of UN meetings that followed the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio. In 1997 the talks led to the Kyoto Protocol, and the conference in Copenhagen was considered to be the opportunity to agree a successor to Kyoto that would bring about meaningful carbon cuts.<ref>{{cite web
| url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/mar/25/copenhagen-climate-change-summit
| title=Why the Copenhagen climate change cliffhanger could drag on a little longer
| last=Adam
| first=David
| publisher=The Guardian
| date=25 March 2009
| accessdate=14 April 2009}}</ref><ref>{{cite web
|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c
|quote=The poll comes as UN negotiations to agree a new global treaty to regulate carbon pollution gather pace in advance of a key meeting in Copenhagen in December. Officials will try to agree a successor to the Kyoto protocol, the first phase of which expires in 2012.
|title=World will not meet 2C warming target, climate change experts agree
|publisher=The Guardian
|last=Adam
|first=David
|date=14 April 2009
|accessdate=14 April 2009}}</ref>

The [[2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference|2010 Cancún agreements]] include voluntary pledges made by 76 developed and developing countries to control their emissions of greenhouse gases.<ref name="king 2011 cancun agreement">
{{citation
| date=July 2011
| last1 = King | first1 = D. 
| chapter=Copenhagen and Cancun
| title=International climate change negotiations: Key lessons and next steps
| publisher=Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford
| location=Oxford, UK
| page=12
| doi=10.4210/ssee.pbs.2011.0003
| url=http://edition2a.intellimag.com/?id=ssee-july2011
|display-authors=etal}} PDF version is also [http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Climate-Negotiations-report_Final.pdf available]
</ref> In 2010, these 76 countries were collectively responsible for 85% of annual global emissions.<ref name="king 2011 cancun agreement"/><ref name="unep 2012 emissions gap">
{{citation
| date=November 2012
| author=United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
| title=The Emissions Gap Report 2012
| publisher=UNEP
| location=Nairobi, Kenya
| pages=14–18
| url=http://www.unep.org/pdf/2012gapreport.pdf
}} Executive summary in [http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgap2012/ other languages]
</ref>

By May 2012, the US, Japan, Russia, and Canada had indicated they would not sign up to a second Kyoto commitment period.<ref>{{cite news 
|url= https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/may/16/bonn-climate-talks-eu-kyoto 
|title=Bonn climate talks: EU plays down talk of Kyoto protocol rift
|first= James  
|last= Murray
|work=The Guardian 
|date= 16 May 2012
|quote=A number of large emitters, including the US, Japan, Russia, and Canada, have signalled they will not sign up to Kyoto or to a second commitment period of Kyoto, while large emerging economies will only sign up to an agreement that does not impose binding emission reduction targets on them. |accessdate=21 November 2012}}</ref> In November 2012, Australia confirmed it would participate in a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol and New Zealand confirmed that it would not.<ref>{{cite news 
|url= https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/nov/09/australia-kyoto-protocol-second-phase 
|title=Kyoto protocol: Australia signs up to second phase 
|first=Fiona 
|last=Harvey
|work=The Guardian 
|date= 9 November 2012  
|accessdate=21 November 2012}}</ref>

New Zealand's climate minister Tim Groser said the 15-year-old Kyoto Protocol was outdated, and that New Zealand was "ahead of the curve" in looking for a replacement that would include developing nations.<ref>{{cite news| url= http://www.3news.co.nz/Groser-NZ-ahead-of-the-curve-in-quitting-Kyoto-Protocol/tabid/1160/articleID/278937/Default.aspx |work=3 News NZ |title= Groser defends quitting Kyoto Protocol| date=3 December 2012}}</ref> Non-profit environmental organisations such as the [[World Wildlife Fund]] criticised New Zealand's decision to pull out.<ref>{{cite news| url= http://www.3news.co.nz/NZs-environmental-reputation-nosedive/tabid/1160/articleID/279779/Default.aspx|work=3 News NZ |title= NZ's climate reputation 'nosedive'| date=10 December 2012}}</ref>

On 8 December 2012, at the end of the [[2012 United Nations Climate Change Conference]], an agreement was reached to extend the Protocol to 2020 and to set a date of 2015 for the development of a successor document, to be implemented from 2020 (see lede for more information).<ref>{{cite news 
|url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20653018 
|title=UN climate talks extend Kyoto Protocol, promise compensation 
|work=BBC News
|date= 8 December 2012  }}</ref> The outcome of the Doha talks has received a mixed response, with small island states critical of the overall package.The Kyoto second commitment period applies to about 11% of annual global emissions of greenhouse gases. Other results of the conference include a timetable for a global agreement to be adopted by 2015 which includes all countries.<ref name="unfccc 2012 doha press release">
{{citation
 | author=UN Climate Change Secretariat
 | title=Doha climate conference opens gateway to greater ambition and action on climate change (press release)
 | publisher=UN Climate Change Secretariat
 | location=Bonn, Germany
 | date=8 December 2012
 | url=http://unfccc.int/files/press/news_room/press_releases_and_advisories/application/pdf/121208_final_pr_cop18_cf.pdf
}}, p.2.
</ref> At the Doha meeting of the parties to the UNFCCC on 8 December 2012, the European Union chief climate negotiator, Artur Runge-Metzger, pledged to extend the treaty, binding on the 27 European Member States, up to the year 2020 pending an internal ratification procedure.

Ban Ki Moon, Secretary General of the United Nations, called  on world leaders to come to an agreement on halting global warming during the 69th Session of the UN General Assembly<ref>http://sd.iisd.org/events/69th-session-of-the-un-general-assembly-unga-69</ref> on 23 September 2014 in New York. UN member states have been negotiating a future climate deal over the last five years. A preliminary calendar was adopted to confirm "national contributions" to the reduction of CO2 emissions by 2015 before the UN climate summit which will be held in Paris [[2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference]].

==See also==
* [[Climate change mitigation#Alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol and successor|Alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol and successor]]
* [[Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate]]
* [[Business action on climate change]]
* [[Carbon emission trading]]
* [[Carbon footprint#Direct carbon emissions|Carbon footprint]]
* [[Clean Development Mechanism]]
* [[Climate legislation]]
* [[Copenhagen Accord]]
* [[Environmental agreements]]
* [[Environmental impact of aviation]]
* [[Environmental law]]
* [[Environmental tariff]]
* [[List of climate change initiatives]]
* [[List of international environmental agreements]]
* [[Low-carbon economy]]
* [[Montreal Protocol]]
* [[Capacity factor|Net Capacity Factor]]
* [[Paris Agreement]]
* [[Politics of global warming]]
* [[Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation]] or REDD
* [[Sustainability]]
* [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] or UNFCCC
* [[World People's Conference on Climate Change]]
* [[Action for climate empowerment (ACE)]]

==Notes==

{{Reflist|colwidth=30em}}

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{{refend}}

==Further reading==

* Ekardt, F./von Hövel, A.: ''Distributive Justice, Competitiveness, and Transnational Climate Protection''. In: Carbon & Climate Law Review, Vol. 3., 2009, p.&nbsp;102–114.
* Katy Longden, Roshni Pabari, Munir Hassan, and Dalia Majumder-Russel, "[http://a4id.org/sites/default/files/files/%5BA4ID%5D%20Climate%20change%20Mitigation%20and%20Adaptation.pdf Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaptation (A Legal Guide)]."  Advocates for International Development (June 2012)
* Romain Morel, and Igor Shishlov, "[http://www.cdcclimat.com/Climate-Report-no44-Ex-post-1704.html Ex-post evaluation of the Kyoto Protocol : Four key lessons for the 2015 Paris Agreement]." CDC Climat Research (May 2014)

;Economics
*{{Cite journal
|date=May 1999
|title=The Costs of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
|editor-last = Weyant | editor-first = J. P.
|journal=Energy Journal
|issue=Special issue
|url=http://emf.stanford.edu/publications/the_costs_of_the_kyoto_protocol_a_multimodel_evaluation/
|accessdate=8 August 2009}} From this issue:
**{{Cite journal
|title=The Kyoto Protocol: A Cost-Effective Strategy for Meeting Environmental Objectives?
| last1 = Manne | first1 = A. S. | first2 = R. | last2 = Richels
|url=http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/38/53/1923159.pdf
|accessdate=8 August 2009}}
**{{Cite journal
|title=Requiem for Kyoto: An Economic Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol
| authorlink1 = William Nordhaus | last1 = Nordhaus | first1 = W. D. | first2 = J. G. | last2 = Boyer
|url=http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/Kyoto.pdf
|accessdate=8 August 2009}}

==External links==
{{Wikisource}}
{{Commons category|Kyoto Protocol}}
* Protocol text ([http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html HTML] and [http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf PDF]), [http://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/CTC/Ch_XXVII-7-b.pdf 2007] and [http://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/CTC/Ch_XXVII-7-c.pdf 2012 amendment]
* [http://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-a&chapter=27&lang=en List of countries who have ratified, accepted, approved, or accessed the Kyoto Protocol], its [http://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-b&chapter=27&lang=en first amendment] (Targets for Belarus) and its [http://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-c&chapter=27&lang=en second amendment] (extension period 2012-2020)
* [http://zvon.org/law/r/kyoto.html Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at Law-Ref.org] – fully indexed and crosslinked with other documents
* [http://mindprod.com/environment/kyoto.html The layman's guide to the Kyoto Protocol]
*[https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AmCeWwNKr6FmdGZLWGotWGNfcUtYWmkyalJIb21vbnc&hl=en%3Cbr%20%3E%3C/a%3E#gid=0 Kyoto: On Target? – Google Docs]
* [http://legal.un.org/avl/ha/kpccc/kpccc.html Introductory note by Laurence Boisson de Chazournes, procedural history note and audiovisual material] on the ''Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change'' in the [http://legal.un.org/avl/historicarchives.html Historic Archives of the United Nations Audiovisual Library of International Law]

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